Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity, outlines the financial principles driving the 2022 market valuation downturn across equities and fixed income.
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“All investments are really valued as the present value of future cash flows, and that's true for bonds, it's true for stocks, and what the Fed was doing last year was raising the cost of capital, and that requires a reset for all assets, and that's exactly what happened.”
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More from Urien Timmer
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Timmer: Equity rally driven by P/E expansion is ending
“If that earnings pivot comes and that earnings recovery happens, then the market can continue to advance on the basis of rising earnings, but the phase where it rises purely on the P.E. Going up, that, I think, is, is now ending, and I think, you know, in the …”
Timmer: Stock market pivoted to betting on soft landing and earnings recovery
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Timmer: Bonds Will Hedge Volatility Better in a 2024 Recession
“If we do get a recession down the road sometime in 2024, Then you would think that bonds will do what they normally do, which is to protect investors from volatility, and again, last year, bonds were in the eye of the volatility storm, but now that yields are …”
Timmer: Full Fed hiking cycles typically span 5 to 6 percentage points
“So the full cycle tends to be five, six percentage points from two to three below what we would consider a neutral rate, which is generally thought of as about three and a half percent or so, to about two to three percentage points above.”
Timmer: Dropping Inflation From 3% to 2% Will Be Harder
“I think the lifting will be a little heavier going forward because what we call the base effects, you know, that rate of change calculation where you add in the current month and you drop out the data from 12 months ago. The base effects are basically behind u…”
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