The Ledger
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Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Huang: The AI industry will with certainty require millions of GPUs
“If you just did that math and you compound it with, you add, you compound that with four X per year, On model size and computing size. And then on the other hand, demand continues to grow in usage. Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt. Yeah, tha…”
Nadella: Hyperscalers will run heterogeneous hardware fleets across multiple chipmakers
“And it's not, and by the way, it's going to be heterogeneous. Obviously, Jensen's super competitive. Lisa is going to come. You know, Hawk's going to produce things from Broadcom. We will all do our own. So, there's going to be a combination. So, you want to r…”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Huang: Elon Musk will likely build a gigawatt AI cluster first
“I would not be surprised if he gets to a gigawatt before anybody else does.”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Gerstner: The US and China will strike a major deal before year-end
“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”
Gerstner Predicts OpenAI Will Release an Open-Source Model by Summer 2025
“I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean, Sam's talked about it many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so, certainly by the end of summer, but I would guess sooner rather than later.”
Gerstner: Enacted US Tariffs on China Will Not Land at 54%
“There's no, no way that lands, I think at 54%. That's the headline tariffs.”
Gerstner: OpenAI and other frontier labs will open-source models in 2025
“Sam and the industry response seems to be tipping more in the direction where we're going to go open to. And my suspicion is you will see that this year you know, out of folks like open AI”
Gerstner: Trump will commit to balancing budget in March State of the Union
“I think in the President's State of the Union address in the first week of March, he's gonna make a commitment to balance the budget in his first term in office.”
Gerstner: Big tech AI CapEx investments will materialize in 2025
“And I think what we can put to bed based upon the conversations we've had, what people are hearing out there, the conversations at CES, there are going to, these investments are going to show up in 20, 25, right?”
Gerstner: Google and OpenAI will launch superior coding agents in 2025
“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”
Madra predicts multi-agent systems will enable transactional AI within one year
“You can have a thousand agents working together.
You can have one that's making sure that the credit card charge is not too big.
You can have another one to make sure that the address is right.
You can have another one checking against your calendar.
And so al…”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gerstner: GPT-5 will introduce early memory and agentic actions
“Like I think in GPT-V, it's not going to be the final state, but I think you're going to see the beginnings of memory and the beginnings of actions. Right. And this is, you know, months away and you and I have a bet on this.”
Gerstner: The GPU shortage will not turn into a glut in 2024
“Every supply shortage does ultimately result in a glut. But people have been calling for this glut now for you know, 12 months anyway. And they're calling for it again this year. We're not going to see it again this year.”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Gerstner: Four or five companies will reach GPT-4 performance in 2024
“I think, you know, a lot said in a tweet yesterday, we're going to have four or five companies that hit chat GPT four level this year with their models. I think that's exactly right.”
Gerstner: Donald Trump will reach a big deal with China
“The reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod, That I think he'll get a big deal done with China.”
Gerstner: Meta will stay committed to open source alongside proprietary models
“My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may compliment it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open source altogether.”
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gerstner: Trump Will Declare Victory on Vietnam Tariffs Before April 9
“So we're gonna hear all these ad hoc negotiations going on, some of which I'm sure, like Vietnam, he'll declare victory on even before we get to April ninth, because they've already capitulated on a bunch of tariffs.”
Gerstner: Investors should brace for real, structural tariffs within three months
“So I just think that one should brace over the next three months. I think these tariffs are very real. They're structural and the president is committed to them.”
Gerstner: xAI will launch Grok 3 trained on world's biggest cluster
“We're going to see he's going to launch Grok three here. I think they're going to have the output the first training run on the biggest cluster in the world. And we're excited to see what that yields from my own perspective.”
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Gerstner: Trump will likely rescind most of Biden's AI executive order
“I suspect that Trump is going to rescind all, or at least part, the major part of the Biden EO executive order on AI.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”
Gerstner: The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates Before 2024 US Election
“I'm still in the camp that we're going to have rate cuts ahead of the election, but the market is now pricing and I think only three rate cuts between now and the end of the year.”
Gerstner: Broad indices will not see a 25% gain in 2025
“I don't expect a 25% up year for a broad-based index.”
Gurley: AI compute spending will shift from training toward inference over time
“Maybe the dollars of compute are going to move more towards inference than training as we move forward.”
Gerstner predicts the Fed will cut interest rates in mid-September 2024
“I think within the Fed, they know that the balance of power between concern over inflation and jobs has shifted, so I expect that on schedule in 30 days I think it's mid-September, you're gonna get a rate cut.”
Gerstner: Big Four Tech to Spend $220B on CapEx in 2024
“If you look at the big four, they're gonna spend two hundred and twenty billion this year on CapEx, you know.”
Gerstner: Cloud hyperscalers will beat consensus revenue forecasts due to AI
“You know, our belief is that they will. We think they will beat those forecasts because we do see that real acceleration coming out of AI.”