The Ledger
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Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxi will likely launch in select cities by Q2 2025
“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”
Huang: The AI industry will with certainty require millions of GPUs
“If you just did that math and you compound it with, you add, you compound that with four X per year, On model size and computing size. And then on the other hand, demand continues to grow in usage. Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt. Yeah, tha…”
Gerstner: 'Death of software' narrative will look silly within 24 months
“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”
Nadella: Hyperscalers will run heterogeneous hardware fleets across multiple chipmakers
“And it's not, and by the way, it's going to be heterogeneous. Obviously, Jensen's super competitive. Lisa is going to come. You know, Hawk's going to produce things from Broadcom. We will all do our own. So, there's going to be a combination. So, you want to r…”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Huang: Elon Musk will likely build a gigawatt AI cluster first
“I would not be surprised if he gets to a gigawatt before anybody else does.”
Madra: US open-source AI will hit the global top three by 2026
“I think if we look at Q four this year or Q one next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, that a top three worldwide model will be a U S based open source model.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025
“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Gerstner: The US and China will strike a major deal before year-end
“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”
Gerstner Predicts OpenAI Will Release an Open-Source Model by Summer 2025
“I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean, Sam's talked about it many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so, certainly by the end of summer, but I would guess sooner rather than later.”
Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China
“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”
Gerstner: US tariffs will ultimately settle around $300B to $400B
“I think we're going to land the plane here closer to three or four hundred billion in tariffs, not six or 700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs.”
Gerstner: Enacted US Tariffs on China Will Not Land at 54%
“There's no, no way that lands, I think at 54%. That's the headline tariffs.”
Gerstner: Congressional Democrats will file federal lawsuit against DOGE budget cuts
“I do expect that Schumer or a group of members as early as this week is going to file you know, a claim, a lawsuit in federal court where they say that there's a violation of the constitution under article one, section nine, clause seven, where Congress has th…”
Gerstner: OpenAI and other frontier labs will open-source models in 2025
“Sam and the industry response seems to be tipping more in the direction where we're going to go open to. And my suspicion is you will see that this year you know, out of folks like open AI”
Gerstner: Trump will commit to balancing budget in March State of the Union
“I think in the President's State of the Union address in the first week of March, he's gonna make a commitment to balance the budget in his first term in office.”
Gerstner: Nvidia will not lose AI market share from 2024 to 2025
“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”
Gerstner: DOGE and Trump will cut hundreds of billions from federal budget
“My forecast is that Doge is actually, and this administration are actually going to cut a lot out of the budget. And you know, I think that you have the leadership in the House and the Senate, and so if they cut hundreds of billions of dollars out of this budg…”
Gerstner: Big tech AI CapEx investments will materialize in 2025
“And I think what we can put to bed based upon the conversations we've had, what people are hearing out there, the conversations at CES, there are going to, these investments are going to show up in 20, 25, right?”
Gerstner: Google and OpenAI will launch superior coding agents in 2025
“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 13 will deliver another 10x MPCI improvement
“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”
Madra predicts multi-agent systems will enable transactional AI within one year
“You can have a thousand agents working together.
You can have one that's making sure that the credit card charge is not too big.
You can have another one to make sure that the address is right.
You can have another one checking against your calendar.
And so al…”
Gerstner predicts SearchGPT will not reach one billion users
“I would say that search GPT I don't think is going to be the product that gets up to a billion users, and it reminds me, it takes me all the way back to a conversation you and I had maybe in episode four Which is what is going to be the next, you know, GPT mom…”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”
Gerstner: Apple will partner with OpenAI, limiting features to newer iPhones
“I think they're going to have a series of announcements, you know, in terms of integrating with OpenAI. They're going to make the phone better. They're going to say, you can only get it on 15 plus or 16. They'll drive a replacement cycle into, you know, that b…”
Gerstner: GPT-5 will introduce early memory and agentic actions
“Like I think in GPT-V, it's not going to be the final state, but I think you're going to see the beginnings of memory and the beginnings of actions. Right. And this is, you know, months away and you and I have a bet on this.”
Gerstner: The GPU shortage will not turn into a glut in 2024
“Every supply shortage does ultimately result in a glut. But people have been calling for this glut now for you know, 12 months anyway. And they're calling for it again this year. We're not going to see it again this year.”
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Gerstner: Next-Gen AI Frontier Models Will Arrive in Q2 2025
“All the rest of the frontier models are kind of in this holding pattern because they're waiting for the B 100 to get launched to this Q three, Q four out of Nvidia. Which probably means the next iteration of the frontier models will come out in Q two of next y…”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Gerstner: Tech IPO Dam Will Break in Second Half of 2024
“I think you're gonna see the dam really break on this year, particularly in the back half of this year. And the reason is because people gotta raise capital, right?”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates in 2024
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year, right?”
Gerstner: Four or five companies will reach GPT-4 performance in 2024
“I think, you know, a lot said in a tweet yesterday, we're going to have four or five companies that hit chat GPT four level this year with their models. I think that's exactly right.”
Gerstner: Donald Trump will reach a big deal with China
“The reason I'm confident and I've said on this pod, That I think he'll get a big deal done with China.”
Gerstner: Meta will stay committed to open source alongside proprietary models
“My hunch is that they're going to stay very committed to open source, but they may compliment it with a proprietary model. That would be my guess. As opposed to scrapping open source altogether.”
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters
“What I'm hearing, Bill, is that it'll be a four hundred billion parameter model, It'll use like, it'll be a mixture of expert model using, you know, 50, 60 70 experts. It's gonna have huge context window, like ten million context window, you know, and it's gon…”
Gerstner: Trump Will Declare Victory on Vietnam Tariffs Before April 9
“So we're gonna hear all these ad hoc negotiations going on, some of which I'm sure, like Vietnam, he'll declare victory on even before we get to April ninth, because they've already capitulated on a bunch of tariffs.”
Gerstner: Investors should brace for real, structural tariffs within three months
“So I just think that one should brace over the next three months. I think these tariffs are very real. They're structural and the president is committed to them.”
Gerstner: xAI will launch Grok 3 trained on world's biggest cluster
“We're going to see he's going to launch Grok three here. I think they're going to have the output the first training run on the biggest cluster in the world. And we're excited to see what that yields from my own perspective.”
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Gerstner: Trump will likely rescind most of Biden's AI executive order
“I suspect that Trump is going to rescind all, or at least part, the major part of the Biden EO executive order on AI.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”