The Ledger
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Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China
“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”
Gerstner: Nvidia will not lose AI market share from 2024 to 2025
“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”
Gerstner: DOGE and Trump will cut hundreds of billions from federal budget
“My forecast is that Doge is actually, and this administration are actually going to cut a lot out of the budget. And you know, I think that you have the leadership in the House and the Senate, and so if they cut hundreds of billions of dollars out of this budg…”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”
Gerstner: Apple will partner with OpenAI, limiting features to newer iPhones
“I think they're going to have a series of announcements, you know, in terms of integrating with OpenAI. They're going to make the phone better. They're going to say, you can only get it on 15 plus or 16. They'll drive a replacement cycle into, you know, that b…”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates in 2024
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year, right?”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters
“What I'm hearing, Bill, is that it'll be a four hundred billion parameter model, It'll use like, it'll be a mixture of expert model using, you know, 50, 60 70 experts. It's gonna have huge context window, like ten million context window, you know, and it's gon…”