The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Gurley: Cross-country excess death data shows COVID lockdowns achieved nothing
“They've gone back through, and looked at excess deaths at a number of different countries, and lockdowns achieved nothing.”
Nadella confirms Microsoft owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on diluted basis
“Yeah, it does. But I would say before even our stake in it, Brad, I think what's pretty unique about OpenAI is the fact that as part of OpenAI's process of restructuring, one of the largest nonprofit gets created.”
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Gurley: Two Delaware Judges Account for 55% of Super-High Fee Multipliers
“In the 20 cases where you have this super high multiplier 55% of the cases are just two of the judges, and there's something else that, that I learned in reading this, which I didn't know, but the chancellor who is one of the two, gets to pick who the cases ar…”
Gerstner: Mistral and other model companies pivoted away from frontier spend
“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”
Gurley: Anthropic and Eric Schmidt Pushed to Restrict Open-Source AI
“Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation and trying to make it such that open source AI would not be legal.”
Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxi will likely launch in select cities by Q2 2025
“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”
Madra: The three fastest AI inference companies are not NVIDIA
“The three fastest companies in inference right now are not Nvidia.”
Huang: xAI Brought 100,000-GPU Cluster from Delivery to Training in 19 Days
“NVIDIA, NVIDIA's infrastructure and computing infrastructure and all that technology, to training, 19 days.”
Huang: The AI industry will with certainty require millions of GPUs
“If you just did that math and you compound it with, you add, you compound that with four X per year, On model size and computing size. And then on the other hand, demand continues to grow in usage. Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt. Yeah, tha…”
Gurley: Closed-source AI leaders are drafting EU AI regulatory language
“The leaders with their closed source AI models are spending more money than any startups ever spent. You know, in lobbying efforts, and they're drafting the language that ends up in the EU doctrine”
Gerstner: 'Death of software' narrative will look silly within 24 months
“I would argue less than 24 months will appear to be silly. I think there's some really interesting investments to be made particularly in the public markets because a lot of these incumbents have incumbent advantages and, you know, they're going to accelerate …”
Gurley: Major LLM players are lobbying regulators to disable open source
“Some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling, you know, regulators to try and disable it.”
Baker: Musk's Infrastructure Became the Fourth-Largest AI Hyperscaler
“In 30 days, we went from not being an AI hyperscaler to being number four, and we passed a lot of companies, including Oracle.”
Huang: xAI Brought a 100k GPU Cluster Online in 19 Days
“Just to put in perspective, a 100,000 GPUs, that's You know, easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster. A supercomputer, ah, that you would build would take normally three years to plan. And then they deliver the equipment, and it takes one…”
Nadella: Hyperscalers will run heterogeneous hardware fleets across multiple chipmakers
“And it's not, and by the way, it's going to be heterogeneous. Obviously, Jensen's super competitive. Lisa is going to come. You know, Hawk's going to produce things from Broadcom. We will all do our own. So, there's going to be a combination. So, you want to r…”
Gurley: Nvidia Agreed to Buy CoreWeave's Unsold Compute Capacity
“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”
Gerstner: California SB 243 creates private right of action against AI chatbots
“And just this morning, Gavin Newsom signed SB two 43, which mandates safety protocols for AI chatbot companions and gives any consumer a private right of action to sue these companies for any emotional harm that comes out of a chatbot.”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027
“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”
Huang: Elon Musk will likely build a gigawatt AI cluster first
“I would not be surprised if he gets to a gigawatt before anybody else does.”
Wu: OpenAI deployed o3 on an air-gapped Los Alamos supercomputer
“We actually did a custom on-prem deployment with them onto one of their supercomputers called Venado. And so this actually involves a bunch of, you know very bespoke work with some FDs also with a lot of our developer team. To actually bring one of our reasoni…”
Gerstner: 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China
“Jensen Huang reminded us recently that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China, and they're indeed innovating and not copying.”
Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset
“While people are saying that, that the Waymos should be worth a hundred and seventy billion inside of Google, you can buy shares of Baidu for zero enterprise value. It's a thirty billion market cap, thirty billion in cash from the books.”
Gurley: Around 50% of US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“You've seen these other charts where like 50% Of the AI researchers in America are Chinese”
Madra: US open-source AI will hit the global top three by 2026
“I think if we look at Q four this year or Q one next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, that a top three worldwide model will be a U S based open source model.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025
“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”
Madra: Alibaba's 30-billion parameter Qwen model matches GPT-4o performance
“There was a release today of a Quen You know, thirty billion parameter model, which is performing as good as GPT-IV-O.”
Madra: Chinese open-source AI offers 90% of top quality at 90% discount
“One of the things that you see with the leading open source models now, which are the Chinese is 90% of the quality in terms of intelligence, but at a 90% price discount.”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Gerstner: The US and China will strike a major deal before year-end
“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”
Gurley: OpenAI and Anthropic paid $10M annually before Meta's talent spree
“OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them ten million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it.”
OpenAI is discussing launching an open-source model shortly, says Brad Gerstner
“OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly.”
Gerstner: Meta is buying 49% of an AI startup for $15B
“Meta has done this interesting structured deal.
They're buying 49% of the company.
they're paying a thirty billion dollar valuation.
So they're paying effectively fifteen billion.
They're avoiding regulatory scrutiny.
the CEO of scale is going to help lead e…”
Gurley: Reddit Sued Anthropic Despite Having an Existing Deal
“Reddit just sued Anthropic this morning despite having a deal”
Gurley: Salesforce Bans Training External AI Models on CRM and Slack Data
“Salesforce changed their terms of service, and in a way that includes not only the CRM data, but Slack data, which, you know, is a company they bought, and they're putting an MCP connector on top of it, which allows AI to query it, but they're telling, they're…”
Gurley: Chinese solid-state LiDAR costs $130 per car vs Waymo's $5,000
“Chinese LIDAR is solid state and designed very differently than the LIDAR that Waymo's using, and it's actually in China right now is, I think, being priced at like a 130 dollars a car, this solid state MEMS LIDAR, whereas the Waymo LIDAR is like 5000 dollars …”
Gerstner: 40% to 50% of Top US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in the United States, our best researchers, are Chinese.”
Gurley: Private Delaware unicorns trading secondary shares face litigation risk
“Litigation around shareholder events are tied solely to public companies. That is not true. If you're incorporated in Delaware, you can be sued. You know, if your shares are trading more freely in the secondary market, you're at risk as well.”
Gerstner: US Secured Trillion-Dollar Investment Deals With Saudi, Qatar, UAE
“In the first five months of this year, we would have gotten a trillion dollar deal signed with Saudi in terms of their investment in the United States, another trillion dollars with Qatar. Another trillion dollars with the UAE. Those are all investments into t…”
Gerstner: Trump Administration Repealed Biden AI Diffusion Rule in May 2025
“The Trump administration just repealed the Biden diffusion rule in May of 25.”
Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle
“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”
Gerstner: House renamed Invest America to 'MAGA account'
“In the House version of the bill, they renamed it the MAGA account, which stood for Money Account for Growth and Advancement.”
Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts
“What he found was he compared a bunch of Delaware judgments with a bunch of judgments in the federal courts. And he looked at a bunch of different breakings, but one of the breaks was, you know, what's the frequency of awards seven times or higher? And what ar…”