The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 28 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gurley: Cross-country excess death data shows COVID lockdowns achieved nothing
“They've gone back through, and looked at excess deaths at a number of different countries, and lockdowns achieved nothing.”
Gerstner: Mistral and other model companies pivoted away from frontier spend
“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”
Gurley: Anthropic and Eric Schmidt Pushed to Restrict Open-Source AI
“Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation and trying to make it such that open source AI would not be legal.”
Baker: Musk's Infrastructure Became the Fourth-Largest AI Hyperscaler
“In 30 days, we went from not being an AI hyperscaler to being number four, and we passed a lot of companies, including Oracle.”
Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027
“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”
Gerstner: X is the top news platform in every country worldwide
“X to me is so interesting because they have a platform that is the number one news platform in every country on the planet.”
Gurley: Leaked OpenAI forecasts show $20B annual losses in 2025 and 2026
“There was someone published the internal forecast of OpenAI, which included, I think, in 25 and 26, losing twenty billion each year.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 delivered 100x improvement in MPCI
“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”
Gurley: OpenAI's 12-Month Subscription Retention Rate Is Around 35%
“On the 20 dollar thing, but at 12 months, the retention even in OpenAI is like 35%, so I doubt that anyone that is looking at that, even at two billion, Feels great about that as a durable business model”
Gerstner: Amazon Spent Over $100 Billion on AWS Before Turning Profitable
“By our analysis, for example, just Amazon, Spent over a hundred billion dollars on AWS invested for over eight years before they saw profitability in that business.”
Gurley: Gary Steele cut Splunk's stock participation from 87% to 15%
“Gary, you know, crushed it at Proofpoint and a huge value creator, and he said, you know, in a very short window, he went, he said he took stock participation from 87% to 15.”
Gurley: China's Politburo Comprises Engineers While Washington Employs Lawyers
“The vast majority of the political borough are former engineers. So this is the ruling party within China and that the vast majority of the people in Washington DC are former lawyers.”
Gerstner: China has 100 nuclear power plants under construction
“There are a hundred nuclear power plants under construction in China. Power is not their limit.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Is Already Running Workloads Out of Abilene Facility
“Larry said at the press conference, They have 10 buildings already built in Abilene. They have another 10 under construction, and we know that OpenAI is already running workloads out of Abilene, Texas, which is where this mega project's going to be built, and …”
Gerstner: Nvidia inference revenue is upwards of 50% of total revenue
“Jensen made, and maybe we'll insert the clip here on the pod, where he talks about his inference revenue is already 50% of his revenue, so already upwards of 50% of his revenue”
Patel: A quarter of Nvidia shipments could provide Llama-7B to humanity
“If you take one quarter of NVIDIA shipments and you said all of them are going to inference Lama-Seven-B, you can give every single person on earth a hundred tokens per minute, right? Or sorry, a hundred tokens per second. You give every single person on earth…”
Gerstner: 2021–2024 IPO Volumes Are Lower Than During 2008 Financial Crisis
“And shockingly, IPOs in two, in twenty-twenty-four, twenty-twenty-one through twenty-twenty-four are fewer than during the great financial crisis in 2008.”
Madra: 82% of enterprises use or plan to use open-source AI
“82% of the respondents said they are either already on open source or will move to open source.”
Agrawal: Global software industry generates roughly $400 billion in annual revenue
“This, and just to put this in context, the entirety of the software industry earns about four hundred billion dollars of revenue.”
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic Private Rounds Eclipse Recent Tech IPOs
“I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market, right?”
Patel: Inflation-adjusted private capital at dot-com peak exceeded today's levels
“At the peak of the dot com, you know, especially once you inflation adjust it the private capital entering the space was much larger than it is today”
Gurley: TSMC is implementing an across-the-board 20% price increase
“TSMC said they're gonna do across the board, 20% price increase.”
Gerstner: Five Times More US Women Die From Heart Attacks Than Breast Cancer
“Five times as many women die of a heart attack each year in this country as die of breast cancer.”
Gurley: Four AI coding co-pilot startups have raised over $200M each
“There are four companies in the coding co-pilot space that are not named Microsoft that have raised over two hundred million dollars each, and we're just These companies are all of a year and a half old, right?”
Baker: $50B in Starlink Revenue Is 0.3% of Global Telecom TAM
“Fifty billion, that's, you know, 0.3% penetration of the global telecom market.”
Gerstner: Markets have dropped 15% since April 2nd tariff announcements
“Markets are now down 15% during this period since, ah, quote unquote, liberation day on April second.”
Gerstner: Expiring individual tax cuts represent $150B annually, or 60 bps of US GDP
“The individual tax cuts, which included increasing the child tax credit and the standard deduction it's all, it's worth about a hundred and fifty billion dollars a year to put it in perspective, right? That's about 60 basis points on US GDP.”