The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 450 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 9 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gurley: Cross-country excess death data shows COVID lockdowns achieved nothing
“They've gone back through, and looked at excess deaths at a number of different countries, and lockdowns achieved nothing.”
Gurley: OpenAI Consumer Subscription Cohorts Suffer ~65% Annual Churn
“At least for the cohorts that are old enough, the churn's about 65% annually, so they're only 35% retaining, which Sachs had hinted at on All In, and maybe the reason that I think Sam at one point said he didn't really see the twenty-dollar thing as his future…”
Nadella confirms Microsoft owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on diluted basis
“Yeah, it does. But I would say before even our stake in it, Brad, I think what's pretty unique about OpenAI is the fact that as part of OpenAI's process of restructuring, one of the largest nonprofit gets created.”
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Philippe Laffont: ChatGPT subscribers reduce Google page views by 8% to 11%
“Absent chat GDP chat GPT, maybe Google page use for particular user growing four percent per year. So we are consuming more Google. Then we get a subscription to chat GDP, which we Chad, Jesus Christ, I confused GDP and GPT. We get a subscription and now we're…”
Gerstner: Jensen Huang plans to triple Nvidia's size using AI agents
“He said, Brad, I'm going to three X the company and our headcount may not grow or only grow a little bit. And I said, how? He said, because I'm going to have agents who are reporting to me. I'm not going to have employees who are.”
Gurley: Two Delaware Judges Account for 55% of Super-High Fee Multipliers
“In the 20 cases where you have this super high multiplier 55% of the cases are just two of the judges, and there's something else that, that I learned in reading this, which I didn't know, but the chancellor who is one of the two, gets to pick who the cases ar…”
Gerstner: Mistral and other model companies pivoted away from frontier spend
“Mistral, a lot of the other model companies have fully pivoted, like they've already raised their hand, white flag, we don't have the revenues that can support the spend to keep up, right?”
Patel: Initial NVIDIA GPU cloud deployments suffer a 5% failure rate
“Google's brought in a level of reliability that NVIDIA GPUs don't have. You know, the dirty secret is to go ask people what the reliability rate of GPUs is in the cloud or in a deployment. It's like, oh God, it is not, they're reliable-ish, like, but like, esp…”
Gurley: Anthropic and Eric Schmidt Pushed to Restrict Open-Source AI
“Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation and trying to make it such that open source AI would not be legal.”
Madra: The three fastest AI inference companies are not NVIDIA
“The three fastest companies in inference right now are not Nvidia.”
Huang: xAI Brought 100,000-GPU Cluster from Delivery to Training in 19 Days
“NVIDIA, NVIDIA's infrastructure and computing infrastructure and all that technology, to training, 19 days.”
Gurley: Large endowments are holding zombiecorn startups at unrealistically high valuations
“And by the way, you talk, if 80% of the zombie corns are never going to get out or are going to get out at reduced prices, I'm telling you flat out, those are being held on the large endowments, you know, as LPs at unrealistically high prices across the board.”
Gurley: Closed-source AI leaders are drafting EU AI regulatory language
“The leaders with their closed source AI models are spending more money than any startups ever spent. You know, in lobbying efforts, and they're drafting the language that ends up in the EU doctrine”
Gurley: Credit Card Data Implies $2.1B of OpenAI Revenue Is Consumer
“I went into one of these credit card survey things, and I looked at OpenAI, and assuming that people don't pay for the API with a credit card, so the credit card pool just represents, and I compared it to a company where I knew the revenue it would imply that …”
Gurley: Major LLM players are lobbying regulators to disable open source
“Some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling, you know, regulators to try and disable it.”
Baker: xAI's Google deal yields higher profit per GW than competitors
“He shows that XAI's deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI.”
Baker: Cursor and Anthropic hold more coding data than public web
“But my understanding is that Cursor and Anthropic have more tokens of proprietary coding data than anyone else, and they each have more tokens of proprietary coding data than exist on the public internet.”
Huang: xAI Brought a 100k GPU Cluster Online in 19 Days
“Just to put in perspective, a 100,000 GPUs, that's You know, easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster. A supercomputer, ah, that you would build would take normally three years to plan. And then they deliver the equipment, and it takes one…”
Baker: Musk's Infrastructure Became the Fourth-Largest AI Hyperscaler
“In 30 days, we went from not being an AI hyperscaler to being number four, and we passed a lot of companies, including Oracle.”
Baker: Grok 4.3 was the most intelligent 500B parameter model in the world
“Grok 4.3 was on the Pareto frontier, and as of 10 or 12 days ago, and these things move fast, most intelligent, five hundred billion parameter model in the world. And they were on the frontier, and there are four companies on the frontier. XAI, SpaceX AI, Goog…”
Tang: AI monetization per gigawatt rose from $20B to $30B–$40B
“When the monetization per gigawatt is actually increasing from, you know, call it, like, 20, twenty billion in the best, best of cases for, at the beginning of the year, To now, like, 30 to even pushing 40.”
Gerstner: Anthropic achieved accidental profitability due to compute spending constraints
“Atropic, no way did they think they were going to be anywhere close to breakeven. Right? In, in, in, in this part of the curve. And the reason, like I called it accidental profitability that, you know, people have been talking about that because they want to s…”
Nadella: Bill Gates was skeptical of Microsoft's initial $1B OpenAI investment
“Obviously you go to the board and say, hey, I have an idea of taking a billion dollars and giving it to this crazy structure, which we don't even kind of understand. What is it? It's a nonprofit, blah, blah, blah. And saying, go for it. There was a debate. Bil…”
Gurley: Nvidia Agreed to Buy CoreWeave's Unsold Compute Capacity
“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”
Gerstner: OpenAI deals imply $150B in CapEx by 2030
“If you add them all up, it looks like to me, OpenAI would be on the hook for like a hundred and fifty billion of CapEx in 2030.”
Gerstner: California SB 243 creates private right of action against AI chatbots
“And just this morning, Gavin Newsom signed SB two 43, which mandates safety protocols for AI chatbot companions and gives any consumer a private right of action to sue these companies for any emotional harm that comes out of a chatbot.”
Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027
“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”
Wu: OpenAI deployed o3 on an air-gapped Los Alamos supercomputer
“We actually did a custom on-prem deployment with them onto one of their supercomputers called Venado. And so this actually involves a bunch of, you know very bespoke work with some FDs also with a lot of our developer team. To actually bring one of our reasoni…”
Wu: GPT-5 hallucinations dropped to near zero on certain benchmark evaluations
“I think there was an eval that showed that hallucinations basically went to zero for a lot of this.”
Gerstner: 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China
“Jensen Huang reminded us recently that 50% of the world's AI researchers are in China, and they're indeed innovating and not copying.”
Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset
“While people are saying that, that the Waymos should be worth a hundred and seventy billion inside of Google, you can buy shares of Baidu for zero enterprise value. It's a thirty billion market cap, thirty billion in cash from the books.”
Gurley: Vast Majority of US House China Committee Never Visited China
“On the 24 members of the select committee for the CCP, and I think all but four of them have never been to China. And the ones that went, it was seven years ago.”
Gurley: Chinese provincial government funds demand non-starter terms from VCs
“Now you have the provinces entering the investment space, which is an uncomfortable reality for some of the VCs. They're asked, I hear they're asking for terms that you and I would consider non-starters, you know and so that's, it's all a little bit messy.”
Gurley: Around 50% of US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“You've seen these other charts where like 50% Of the AI researchers in America are Chinese”
Madra: Alibaba's 30-billion parameter Qwen model matches GPT-4o performance
“There was a release today of a Quen You know, thirty billion parameter model, which is performing as good as GPT-IV-O.”
Madra: Chinese open-source AI offers 90% of top quality at 90% discount
“One of the things that you see with the leading open source models now, which are the Chinese is 90% of the quality in terms of intelligence, but at a 90% price discount.”
Gurley: AI foundation models are pricing below cost, subsidized by venture capital
“Because of the amount of venture capital out there companies are not pricing the cost. Like, no one, none of the model companies, I don't think anyone, even in the verticals, like, no one's pricing the cost, because they're pricing to take market share.”
Gurley: OpenAI and Anthropic paid $10M annually before Meta's talent spree
“OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them ten million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it.”
OpenAI is discussing launching an open-source model shortly, says Brad Gerstner
“OpenAI is talking about launching an open source model here shortly.”
Gerstner: Meta is buying 49% of an AI startup for $15B
“Meta has done this interesting structured deal.
They're buying 49% of the company.
they're paying a thirty billion dollar valuation.
So they're paying effectively fifteen billion.
They're avoiding regulatory scrutiny.
the CEO of scale is going to help lead e…”
Gurley: Reddit Sued Anthropic Despite Having an Existing Deal
“Reddit just sued Anthropic this morning despite having a deal”
Gurley: Salesforce Bans Training External AI Models on CRM and Slack Data
“Salesforce changed their terms of service, and in a way that includes not only the CRM data, but Slack data, which, you know, is a company they bought, and they're putting an MCP connector on top of it, which allows AI to query it, but they're telling, they're…”
Gurley: Chinese solid-state LiDAR costs $130 per car vs Waymo's $5,000
“Chinese LIDAR is solid state and designed very differently than the LIDAR that Waymo's using, and it's actually in China right now is, I think, being priced at like a 130 dollars a car, this solid state MEMS LIDAR, whereas the Waymo LIDAR is like 5000 dollars …”
Gerstner: 40% to 50% of Top US AI Researchers Are Chinese
“I saw a study that suggested that 40 to 50% of the AI researchers in the United States, our best researchers, are Chinese.”
Gurley: Private Delaware unicorns trading secondary shares face litigation risk
“Litigation around shareholder events are tied solely to public companies. That is not true. If you're incorporated in Delaware, you can be sued. You know, if your shares are trading more freely in the secondary market, you're at risk as well.”