why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Wu: OpenAI deployed o3 on an air-gapped Los Alamos supercomputer
“We actually did a custom on-prem deployment with them onto one of their supercomputers called Venado. And so this actually involves a bunch of, you know very bespoke work with some FDs also with a lot of our developer team. To actually bring one of our reasoni…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: GPT-5 hallucinations dropped to near zero on certain benchmark evaluations
“I think there was an eval that showed that hallucinations basically went to zero for a lot of this.”
Assertion Supported
Wu: Los Alamos OpenAI supercomputer deployment is shared with Lawrence Livermore and Sandia
“The other cool thing is it's actually being shared between Los Alamos and some of the other labs Lawrence Livermore Sandia as well because it, it's the supercomputer setup where they can all kind of connect with it remotely.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: GPT-5 Pro solves previously unsolved problems but takes ten minutes
“These like unsolved problems that none of the other models could handle, you throw out a GPT-V Pro, and it just like one shots it is pretty crazy, but the trade-off here is you're waiting for 10 minutes.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: OpenAI is currently operating in a GPU crunch
“We are in a GPU crunch, so we'll see how, you know, how long that goes.”
Assertion Supported
Wu: ChatGPT is roughly the fifth largest website in the world
“ChatGPT obviously is really, really, really big now.
[233] Sherwin Wu: It's I think like the fifth largest website in the world.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: The majority of the startup ecosystem builds on OpenAI's API
“The biggest product that we have is obviously our developer platform, which is our API.
[271] Sherwin Wu: You know, many developers, you know, the majority of the startup ecosystem builds on top of this, as well as a lot of digital natives, Fortune 500 enterpr…”
Assertion Supported
Wu: GPT-4 already existed internally at OpenAI by September 2022
“The first one was right when I joined the company in September, 20, 22. We, it was pre-TiGPT. But at the time, GPT-IV already existed internally.”
Assertion Supported
Wu: OpenAI's original product was its developer API, not ChatGPT
“When I joined OpenAI around three years ago to work on the API, it was actually the only product that we had.
[178] Sherwin Wu: So I think a lot of people actually forget this, where the original product for, from OpenAI actually was not ChatGPT.
[183] Sherwin…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Wu: OpenAI used T-Mobile deployment learnings to improve core Realtime models
“And a lot of the improvements that we actually got into the model came out of, you know, the learnings that we have from T-Mobile. It brings in a lot of other change from other customers, but because we were so deeply embedded into T-Mobile and we were able to…”
Assertion Supported
Wu: Accordance achieved SOTA results on Tax Bench via OpenAI RFT
“There's another startup called Accordance that's doing this in the tax space. I think they've been targeting an eval called Tax Bench, which looks at, you know, CPA style tasks as well. And because they, because, you know, they're able to turn it into a very g…”