The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: An AI compute infrastructure glut is guaranteed to happen
“There will come a glut for sure. And whether that's like in two to three years or five to six, Satya and I can't tell you, but like it's gonna happen at some point, probably several points along the way.”
Altman: OpenAI will become a major AI cloud and consumer device business
“And that not only will Chachapiti keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value.”
Altman: OpenAI will eventually build low-power devices running GPT-6 locally
“Someday we will make an incredible consumer device that can run a GPT-Five or GPT-Six capable model completely locally at a low power draw.”
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Altman predicts OpenAI's nonprofit will become the largest nonprofit ever
“And also as Satya said, create what we believe will be the largest nonprofit ever.”
Altman: Cheap Mass Energy Will Burn Existing Power Contract Signers
“A very cheap form of energy comes online soon at mass scale, and a lot of people are going to be extremely burned with existing contracts they've signed.”
Altman expects coding AI to execute multi-day tasks by 2026
“Codex has been a very cool thing to watch this year, and as these go from multi-hour tasks to multi-day tasks, which I expect to happen next year, what people be able to do to create Software at an unprecedented rate.”
Altman: Customers will pay premium rates for breakthrough-level AI models
“Now, on the other hand, as the models get even smarter and you can use these models to cure cancer or discover novel physics or drive a bunch of humanoid robots to construct a space station or whatever crazy thing you want, then maybe there's huge willingness …”