The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: An AI compute infrastructure glut is guaranteed to happen
“There will come a glut for sure. And whether that's like in two to three years or five to six, Satya and I can't tell you, but like it's gonna happen at some point, probably several points along the way.”
Altman: OpenAI will become a major AI cloud and consumer device business
“And that not only will Chachapiti keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value.”
Altman: OpenAI will eventually build low-power devices running GPT-6 locally
“Someday we will make an incredible consumer device that can run a GPT-Five or GPT-Six capable model completely locally at a low power draw.”
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Altman predicts OpenAI's nonprofit will become the largest nonprofit ever
“And also as Satya said, create what we believe will be the largest nonprofit ever.”
Altman: OpenAI would still rely on Microsoft distribution even with superintelligence
“Brad, to say the obvious, if we had super intelligence tomorrow, we would still want Microsoft's help getting this product out into people's hands and we want them like, yeah.”
Altman: 10x more compute would yield near 10x revenue for OpenAI
“If we had 10 X more compute, I don't know if we'd have 10 X more revenue, but I don't think it'd be that far.”
Altman: AI scaling currently equates log of intelligence to log of compute
“Unfortunately, it's something closer to log of intelligence equals log of compute, but we may figure out better scaling laws, and we may figure out how to beat this.”
Altman: Cheap Mass Energy Will Burn Existing Power Contract Signers
“A very cheap form of energy comes online soon at mass scale, and a lot of people are going to be extremely burned with existing contracts they've signed.”
Altman: OpenAI Does Not Know How to Comply with Colorado AI Act
“I don't know how we're supposed to comply with that California, sorry, Colorado law. I would love them to tell us you know, we'd like to be able to do it, but that's just, from what I've read of that, that's like I literally don't know what we're supposed to d…”
Altman: OpenAI will keep stateless APIs exclusive to Azure through 2030
“We are keeping what Satya termed once. And I think it's a great phrase of stateless APIs on Azure exclusively through 20, 30 and everything else we're gonna You know, distribute elsewhere.”
Altman: Cost per unit of intelligence has dropped roughly 40x annually
“This unbelievable reduction in cost per unit of intelligence, let's say it's been averaging like 40 X for a given level per year”
Altman: OpenAI has no IPO date or formal decision to go public
“No, no, no, we don't have anything that specific. I'm a realist. I assume it will happen someday, but that was I don't know why people write these reports. We don't have like a date in mind. We don't have a decision to do this or anything like that. I just ass…”
Altman: 50-State Patchwork of AI Regulations Is a Big Mistake
“I'm very worried about a 50 state patchwork. I think it's a big mistake. I think it's, there's a reason we don't usually do that for these sorts of things. I think it'd be bad.”
Altman expects coding AI to execute multi-day tasks by 2026
“Codex has been a very cool thing to watch this year, and as these go from multi-hour tasks to multi-day tasks, which I expect to happen next year, what people be able to do to create Software at an unprecedented rate.”
Altman confirms OpenAI is developing new computing device form factors
“That's one reason I'm very excited that we're doing new form factors of computing devices, because computers were not built for that kind of workflow very well.”
Altman: OpenAI could not have succeeded without Microsoft and Nadella's conviction
“I don't think, I think this is one of the great tech partnerships ever and without, certainly without Microsoft and particularly Satya's early conviction we would not have been able to do this.”
Altman: A 100x drop in compute cost would trigger >100x demand surge
“If the price of compute per like unit of intelligence or whatever, however you want to think about it. Fell by a factor of a hundred tomorrow, you would see usage go up by much more than a hundred. And there'd be a lot of things that people would love to do wi…”
Altman: Customers will pay premium rates for breakthrough-level AI models
“Now, on the other hand, as the models get even smarter and you can use these models to cure cancer or discover novel physics or drive a bunch of humanoid robots to construct a space station or whatever crazy thing you want, then maybe there's huge willingness …”
Altman: OpenAI scaled compute roughly 10x over the past year
“We've scaled our compute probably to 10 X over the past year”