The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 12 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Patel: Broadcom is building an NVSwitch competitor for AMD and others
“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”
Patel: Microsoft runs GPT models on AMD hardware for inference
“Microsoft has deployed GPT-style models on On other competitors' hardware, such as AMD they've, and some of their own, but mostly AMD, and so they can wring that out with software because they can spend hundreds of engineers, dozens of engineers' hours hundred…”
Patel: Cisco was fueled by speculative debt whereas NVIDIA is cash-backed
“Cisco's revenue, a lot of it was funded through private-slash-credit investments into building out telecom infrastructure, right? When we look at NVIDIA's revenue sources, very little of it is private-slash-credit, right? And in some cases, yes, it's private-s…”
Patel: GPT-4 cost hundreds of millions to train, generates billions in revenue
“Hundreds of millions of dollars to train GPT-IV. And it's generating billions of dollars of revenue.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Patel: Google TPU clusters scale up to 8,000 chips today
“Nvidia's talking about GB 200, NVL 72, TPUs go to 8000 today, right?”
Patel: Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000-chip Trainium supercomputer
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 tranium server supercomputer, right? 400,000 chips, right?”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”
Patel: Nvidia Blackwell costs over twice as much to manufacture as Hopper
“The cost to make Blackwell is north of two X that of the cost to make Hopper, right?”
Patel: Google has run transformers in Search workloads since 2018
“Google was running transformers even in their search workload since 2018, 2019. The advent of BERT, which was one of the most most well-known, most popular transformers before we got to the GPT madness is, has been their, in their production search workloads f…”