The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Patel: Meta and Microsoft may take free cash flows close to zero
“I think Meta and Microsoft may even take their free cash flows close to zero and just spent.”
Patel: AI models may improve faster over the next 6-12 months
“We may actually see models improve faster in the next six months to a year than we saw them improve in the last year. Because there's this new axis of synthetic data generation and the amount of compute we can throw at it is, we're still right here in the scal…”
Patel: Reasoning models will see humongous performance gains within a year
“And so this, the performance improvements we'll get out of these models is, is humongous, right? In, in the coming, you know, six months to a year in certain benchmarks where you have functional verifiers.”
Patel: AMD will see less AI revenue from Microsoft and Meta in 2025
“Yes, I think they'll have they'll have a lot less success with Microsoft than they did this year. And they'll have less success than they did with Meta than they did this year.”
Patel: Google TPU purchases will pause for six months over space limits
“Like in the next six months there is a bit of a slowdown in Google TPU purchases because they have no data center space. They want more. They just literally have no data center space to put them.”
Patel: Only 5 to 10 of the 80 GPU NeoClouds will survive
“80 NeoClouds are not going to survive. Maybe five to 10 will. And that's because five of those are sovereign, right? And then the other five are like actually like market competitive.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”