The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 278 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 28 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: Reconciliation bill will likely increase the US federal deficit
“But I suspect when you look at this package, right, and again, I'm just saying based upon how the Congressional Budget Office will score it, and this is kind of arcane scoring, but it will probably increase the deficit, and at best it would reduce it by a hund…”
Gerstner: Trump Macro Agenda Unlikely to Achieve a Smooth Landing
“The probability that you're going to land this plane and just a really smooth landing, I think is, is challenging to see, right? It's, We're going to have some wins. We're going to have some losses.”
Gerstner: Trump Will Declare Victory on Vietnam Tariffs Before April 9
“So we're gonna hear all these ad hoc negotiations going on, some of which I'm sure, like Vietnam, he'll declare victory on even before we get to April ninth, because they've already capitulated on a bunch of tariffs.”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will launch in April 2025 with 400B parameters
“What I'm hearing, Bill, is that it'll be a four hundred billion parameter model, It'll use like, it'll be a mixture of expert model using, you know, 50, 60 70 experts. It's gonna have huge context window, like ten million context window, you know, and it's gon…”
Gerstner: Cutting-edge GPUs will be used for training two years, then inference
“When you talk about two years for GPUs, they're going to, cutting edge GPUs are going to be used for cutting edge training for the, you know, frontier models in that first two year period. But all these things are going to continue to get used for inference.”
Gerstner: Markets will not see tremendous flows over next 60 days
“And that's why I think you're not going to see tremendous flows into the market over the course of the next 60 days, because I think a lot of market participants are going to wait, right?”
Gerstner: OpenAI's Upcoming AI Product Releases Will Be Profound
“I think the stuff that we're going to see over the course of the next eight to 10 weeks out of open AI, as they get these releases teed up, I think it's going to be pretty profound and, You know, continue to add you know, to add pressure to that lead.”
Gerstner: AI model inference will deliver strong gross margins at maturity
“I would just posit for you that you'll be able to come up with a variable expense structure using the right mix of models that will be a great margin. May not be as high as retrieval was for Google, but still a great margin.”
Nadella: AI agents will exponentially increase compute infrastructure demand
“When you think of an AI agent, it turns out the AI agents Is going to exponentially increase compute usage because you now are not even bound by just one human invoking a program. It's one human invoking programs that invoke lots more programs. And so that's g…”
Gerstner: Public markets could see a 10% to 15% drawdown from slowing growth
“Which means we could see just a random run of the mill, 10 to 15% drawdown, right, in the markets while the market gets its head around the fact that the economy is going to grow a little slower.”
Gerstner: Investors should brace for real, structural tariffs within three months
“So I just think that one should brace over the next three months. I think these tariffs are very real. They're structural and the president is committed to them.”
Gurley: Reshoring low-cost manufacturing with tariffs will fail and hike prices
“No doubt, but my point is that even with that lens, you have to think about the dynamics around the globe and pulling up the wall and trying to get people to make a 40 dollar microwave in America is gonna fail. Like, you're just gonna end up with more expensiv…”
Gerstner: xAI will launch Grok 3 trained on world's biggest cluster
“We're going to see he's going to launch Grok three here. I think they're going to have the output the first training run on the biggest cluster in the world. And we're excited to see what that yields from my own perspective.”
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Haas: TSMC leading-edge capacity and HBM will constrain AI buildout
“Fab capacity does become an issue. No, no doubt. Because when you start thinking about three nanometer and two nanometer you know, TSMC is, is the leader, is the, Only game on town on some level. So I think that is a potential limitation or at least constraint…”
Gurley: Odds of ByteDance Agreeing to Sell TikTok Are Low
“Well, and they've had a 180 days to do it. So the odds that they actually want to do it, I think are low because they could have done it already.”
Gerstner: Trump will likely rescind most of Biden's AI executive order
“I suspect that Trump is going to rescind all, or at least part, the major part of the Biden EO executive order on AI.”
Gerstner: Significantly more AI companies will open-source models in 2025
“I think you're going to see in 20, 25, a lot more companies open source more of their models.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”
Nadella: Enterprise AI agent data access will use licensed connector interfaces
“On the enterprise side, I think what will happen is everybody will say, hey, in order for you to either action into my action space or to get data out of my sort of schema, so to speak, there is some kind of an interface to my agent that is licensed, so to spe…”
Nadella: Enterprise autonomous AI agents are one to two years away
“But I think we are maybe a year, year to two years away from doing more and more, but as in, so, but I think at least from an enterprise perspective, going and doing, here's my sales agent, here's my marketing agent, here's my supply chain agent, which can do …”
Gerstner: Trump will negotiate away tariffs only after achieving national objectives
“And so I think the right way to look at this tariffs debate is that, you know, it is a starting point. He's going to raise these tariffs in order to achieve national objectives. And then he's going to be willing to negotiate away from them, but only if he achi…”
Gurley: Americans will back DOGE once wasteful spending is highlighted
“And I think when you highlight to the American population, really idiotic spend,
And they're going to get behind this thing.”
Madra: Fewer developers will touch CUDA long-term, weakening NVIDIA's software moat
“I think there's going to be fewer people touching that. And I do think that's a point where they're the moat is not as strong as a longer term, as you say, and think about like, you know, the way the analogy that I would go with is like, think about the number…”
Gurley: NVIDIA customer concentration may increase as AI training costs escalate
“And there may be, if that trajectory remains true, you could have an evolution where customer concentration increases for NVIDIA over time rather than going the other way, depending on how, you know, if Sam's right that they're gonna spend a hundred, Billion o…”
Huang: AI will deliver immense value long before achieving AGI
“The one thing that I know is that, that AI's, AI's gonna have a roadmap of capabilities over time, and that, and roadmap of capabilities over time is gonna be quite spectacular. And along the way, long before it even gets to anybody's definition of AGI, we're …”
Gerstner: Altimeter expects four portfolio IPOs, including Cerebras, CoreWeave, and Databricks
“I think we may have four IPOs in the pipeline in the next four to six months. The rumors out there around companies like Cerebris and CoreWeave and Databricks, those are all in our portfolios.”
Gerstner: Nvidia's 2025 stock hinges on shipping 6M versus 4.5M GPUs
“You know, we're kind of at, You know, six million GPUs for next year. The bearish people are at like four and a half million. Like the numbers will ultimately tell if they do six million next year, the stock's going higher. If they do four and a half million, …”
Gerstner: China is expected to pass US nuclear power generation by 2030
“China's on track, on the other hand, to bring on more capacity capacity in the next 10 years than we've brought on in the last 40 years. They're expected to pass us in terms of total power generation from nuclear by 2030, or thereabouts.”
Gerstner: US baseload power growth will surge over next 5 to 10 years
“When you model out the need for data center capacity over the course of the next five to 10 years, you realize for the first time in really two decades, the US's need to grow its baseload power generation is going to go up significantly, significantly faster t…”
Gerstner: The Fed may be late to cut rates to head off recession
“I think it's reasonable that they may be late to reduce interest rates to head off a recession.”
Gerstner: The Democratic Party will inevitably realign with Silicon Valley
“I do think that you're going to see a Democratic Party that, you know, looks in the mirror, comes back to, you know, Silicon Valley on a lot of these issues.”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will likely arrive by late 2024
“So it seems to me and our team's best guess is that Llama four is going to come in the back half of the year. Right. Maybe in November, December timeframe.”
Gerstner: AI startup mortality rate will be very high and winners massive
“I do think that the mortality rate in AI is going to be very high and the winners are going to be incredibly large. And if this is all as big as we think it is, this is going to play out over decades.”
Gerstner: AI productivity gains will match or exceed the PC era
“The productivity gains to come out of that are undeniable, and I think there's reason to believe that the productivity gains we're gonna see here are at least as big.”
Gurley: Crypto and blockchain will never replace corporate entities or marketplaces
“Saying that crypto and blockchain would replace the corporate entity. Like, and that marketplace companies like Uber wouldn't exist and all this stuff. Like, and that just didn't play out. And I don't think it's going to, you know, I'll go out on a limb.”
Gerstner: US will not pass heavy AI regulation or major funding
“I don't think we're going to get a lot of regulation. I would be surprised if we see a lot of incremental dollars go into this.”
Gurley: Deglobalization is highly inflationary and harms corporate competitiveness
“You know, de-globalization, highly inflationary, and we'll make our companies less competitive, not more.”
Gerstner: Very few companies will be able to build frontier AI models
“I think that the cost structures that are going to be associated with frontier level models, there are going to be very few companies on the planet that are going to be able to build those models. Because I think the latest discussions, whether it's you know, …”
Gerstner: Wearable AI devices are one year away from capable on-device models
“We're a year away, probably max, from that thing being able to have a billion parameter or five hundred million parameter model that basically has all the capability you need it to have.”
Gerstner: Tesla will eventually need to open its robotaxi network to Uber
“So I think they probably launch it you know you know, on a standalone basis. They get a lot of excitement and a lot of customer love for it. But my sense is by the time you scale this, it probably does have to be an open system.”
Gerstner: Robotaxis Will Scale Internationally Before the US
“There are a ton of jurisdictions where I expect this, unfortunately, before I expect it in the US you know, at scale.”
Gurley: LLMs Will Provide Little Utility on Manufacturing Floors
“You know, LLM's not going to do much for you on a manufacturing floor. The LLM part. AI might but the LLM won't.”
Gerstner: The Fed Will Cut Interest Rates Before 2024 US Election
“I'm still in the camp that we're going to have rate cuts ahead of the election, but the market is now pricing and I think only three rate cuts between now and the end of the year.”
Gerstner: Computers are not far off from surpassing all human intelligence
“We're going from this era where computers were highly efficient calculators, and I said, you know, we're not far off from it being, computers being able to reason and think, and being smarter than every human who's ever lived on the planet”