The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 372 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: Newsom has not signed Diablo Canyon extension past 2029
“Gavin Newsom still has not signed the extension for Diablo Canyon beyond 2029. It's insane. We have to make that happen this year. It's 10% of California's green, clean power.”
Gerstner: Microsoft generates $10 billion in AI inference revenue
“You know, as Satya told us on the pod, they have ten billion in inference revenue, and I think he expects that to grow. Significantly.”
Gerstner: Trump will likely rescind most of Biden's AI executive order
“I suspect that Trump is going to rescind all, or at least part, the major part of the Biden EO executive order on AI.”
Patel: A quarter of Nvidia shipments could provide Llama-7B to humanity
“If you take one quarter of NVIDIA shipments and you said all of them are going to inference Lama-Seven-B, you can give every single person on earth a hundred tokens per minute, right? Or sorry, a hundred tokens per second. You give every single person on earth…”
Patel: AWS Trainium2 offers highest HBM capacity and bandwidth per dollar
“Their whole thing at reInvent, if you really talk to them when they announced Trinium II and our whole post about it and our analysis of it is, like, supply chain-wise, this is, looks, you know, you squint your eyes, this looks like an Amazon Basics TPU, right…”
Patel: Microsoft runs GPT models on AMD hardware for inference
“Microsoft has deployed GPT-style models on On other competitors' hardware, such as AMD they've, and some of their own, but mostly AMD, and so they can wring that out with software because they can spend hundreds of engineers, dozens of engineers' hours hundred…”
Gerstner: Jensen projected $1T in new AI and CPU replacement workloads
“And for the first time, he said, not only are we going to have a trillion dollars of new AI workloads over the course of the next four years he said, but we're also going to have a trillion dollars of CPU replacement, of data center replacement workloads over …”
Patel: Cisco was fueled by speculative debt whereas NVIDIA is cash-backed
“Cisco's revenue, a lot of it was funded through private-slash-credit investments into building out telecom infrastructure, right? When we look at NVIDIA's revenue sources, very little of it is private-slash-credit, right? And in some cases, yes, it's private-s…”
Patel: GPT-4 cost hundreds of millions to train, generates billions in revenue
“Hundreds of millions of dollars to train GPT-IV. And it's generating billions of dollars of revenue.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Patel: Google TPU clusters scale up to 8,000 chips today
“Nvidia's talking about GB 200, NVL 72, TPUs go to 8000 today, right?”
Patel: Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000-chip Trainium supercomputer
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 tranium server supercomputer, right? 400,000 chips, right?”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”
Patel: Nvidia Blackwell costs over twice as much to manufacture as Hopper
“The cost to make Blackwell is north of two X that of the cost to make Hopper, right?”
Microsoft missed early deep learning opportunity with Geoffrey Hinton to Google
“In fact, even Hinton worked, like some of the early work in DNNs happened when he was in residency in MSR and then Google hired him. So we missed, I would say, even in the early 20 tens, some of what could have been doubling down at around the same time that G…”
Nadella: OpenAI Briefly Used GCP Before Returning to Microsoft for Transformers
“The first time yeah, actually, Elon and Sam, they were looking for, obviously, Azure credits, and what have you, and we gave them some credits, and that time, they were more into RL, and Dota II, and what have you, and that was interesting and then we stopped …”
Nadella: Shopify, Stripe, and Spotify became Azure users via OpenAI APIs
“Take, you know, Shopify or Stripe or Spotify. These were not customers of Azure. They were all customers of GCP or they were customers of AWS. So suddenly we got access
Do many, many more logos who are all quote unquote digital natives who are using Azure in …”
Gerstner: US federal revenues grew at 5.8% CAGR since 2017 tax cuts
“So since the tax cuts in 2009 and 17, we've grown our federal revenues at 5.8%.”
Gerstner: AMD guidance implies 3% GPU data center share vs Nvidia's 90%
“They gave some forward guidance tonight that suggests they're going to stay at about three percent of the GPU kind of data center market relative to NVIDIA at about 90%.”
Gerstner: 40% of NVIDIA's revenue already comes from inference
“40% of their revenues are already inference.”
Gerstner: xAI built and energized its supercomputer cluster in 19 days
“What would take somebody else years to get permitted, to get energized, to get liquid cool, to get stood up that x.ai did in 19 days”
Gerstner: xAI's Memphis cluster is the world's largest coherent supercomputer
“It's the single largest coherent supercomputer in the world today, that it's going to get bigger.”
Gerstner: OpenAI achieved escape velocity with $4B revenue and $10.5B capital
“Don't forget this company, you know, is, has over four billion in revenue scaling. Probably most people think to ten billion plus in revenue. Over the course of the next year, they just raised six and a half billion. They got a four billion dollar line of cred…”
Huang: NVIDIA Lowered Marginal Compute Costs by 100,000x Over 10 Years
“You know, a lot of this is happening because we drove the marginal cost of computing down by a 100,000 X over the course of 10 years.”
Gerstner: OpenAI has 250M weekly users, double Google at IPO
“They have two hundred and fifty million, yeah, two hundred and fifty million weekly average users, which we estimate is twice the amount Google had at the time of its IPO.”
Huang: A 100,000-GPU Cluster Is Easily the Fastest Supercomputer on Earth
“A 100,000 GPUs, that's, you know, easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet. That's one cluster.”
Gerstner: Altimeter expects four portfolio IPOs, including Cerebras, CoreWeave, and Databricks
“I think we may have four IPOs in the pipeline in the next four to six months. The rumors out there around companies like Cerebris and CoreWeave and Databricks, those are all in our portfolios.”
Gerstner: AI inference costs have fallen over 90% in 18 months
“We already know the cost of inference has come down by over 90% over the course of the last 18 months, and our friend Sonny over the weekend when we were in our group chat, you know, said he expects it to come down by another 90% over the course of the next se…”
Zawalick: Reprocessing spent fuel allows 80% to 90% to be reused
“Now you start reprocessing that, and you have a, again, a federal policy change from the Carter administration to allow for reprocessing like France does. You can get about, you know, you hear numbers between 80, 90% Of, you know, isotopic, you know, use of be…”
Gurley: US Vogtle reactors cost $13B per gigawatt versus China's $2.5B
“We recently brought on two new plants in the U.S. Vogel three and four in Georgia, and the total cost of that was about thirty billion for 2.2 gigawatts. It turns out over thirteen billion dollars per gigawatt. The plants in China that are the equivalent level…”
Gurley: South Korea builds nuclear at the same cost as China
“South Korea is a democracy, A friend of the United States, they're at the same delivered price point as China, and they're doing it at scale, and they're starting to export their technology.”
Gerstner: US export controls prevent nuclear companies from building and exporting
“Well, we have export controls in the United States, which are preventing a lot of these companies from building and exporting.”
Gerstner: Half of $20T yen carry trade unwound in two days
“And you had 20 trillion of these trades at play, according to JP Morgan. I think in the first two days, half of those trades they estimated got unwound.”
Gerstner: Generative AI apps show around 40% weekly engagement
“If you look at these generative AI apps, character tops out at about 64%, but if you look at Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, they're about 40%. So much lower engagement you know, than you know, internet consumer apps.”
Gerstner: Meta's Llama 4 will likely arrive by late 2024
“So it seems to me and our team's best guess is that Llama four is going to come in the back half of the year. Right. Maybe in November, December timeframe.”
Gurley: White House EV summit excluded Tesla despite 95% market share
“Holding an EV summit without inviting Tesla, who has like, 95% of the shipments in the US, is, I don't know how you even do it with a straight face.”
Gurley: Microsoft is now a top four global security company
“A lot of people don't know this, but Microsoft's now one of the top four security companies in the world”
Gerstner: Active Managers Control Only 11% of Mega-Cap Tech Shares
“About 11 to 12% of the dollars in, in, in, in large cap tech, think mag seven are quote unquote active dollars.
So think long only in hedge funds.
Yeah.
So if you would have looked at this in 2010, that would have been above 20%.”
Gerstner: Hedge Funds Are Most Underweight Growth in a Decade
“Overall hedge funds are more underweight growth than at any point Morgan Stanley has seen in the last 10 years.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Has Generated $3 Billion in Real Customer Spend
“To the tune of, you know, three billion dollars, OpenAI has people reaching in their pockets and paying real money, including myself, for their service.”
Gerstner: 2021–2024 IPO Volumes Are Lower Than During 2008 Financial Crisis
“And shockingly, IPOs in two, in twenty-twenty-four, twenty-twenty-one through twenty-twenty-four are fewer than during the great financial crisis in 2008.”
Gerstner: Venture Secondary Market Sales Are Down 50% to 75% From Peak
“The secondary sales in the venture market are 50 to 75% off the highs, just like the public markets retrace.”
Gerstner: Nvidia's earnings multiple remained flat despite 10x stock surge
“In the case of Cisco, the earnings multiple more than tripled during that period of time. But in this case, because of the earnings growth of Nvidia, the earnings multiple has been flat despite the fact that the stock is up nearly 10 X.”
Gurley: 85% of CIOs increase AI spend despite flat budgets
“Let, I think, eight percent of CIOs have a budget increase over 10%. So, 92% don't. So, think fixed, you know, near fixed budget, but 85% of them say they're aggressively increasing their spend on AI.”
Madra: 82% of enterprises use or plan to use open-source AI
“82% of the respondents said they are either already on open source or will move to open source.”
Gurley: Hims & Hers and SoFi prove smaller public tech companies can thrive
“Like even in the SPAC space, look at him and hers, or look at SoFi, Anthony Noto, like they, they've actually done well over the past six months, like numbers up and to the right, stock up and to the right, and much smaller than Instacart, so it is doable.”