The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 728 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 37 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: U.S. Will Frame European M&A Enforcement as Trade Barrier
“And so if the Europeans continue to bite our ankles, I think this is one of the things the administration is going to point out on April second and just say, like, we can't have this. Right. You can't effectively thwart business activity between two American c…”
Gerstner: Most Software Code Will Be AI-Written by End of 2025
“By the end of the year,
Right?
Most code is going to either be refactored or written from the start using machine learning. It's going to be coding agents that are helping to do that.”
Gerstner: US AI Export Rules Will Help Huawei Dominate Global Markets
“This diffusion rule will make it hard for us to get chips to Saudi Arabia, to the UAE, to India, to, you know, our friends in, in Southeast Asia, and it makes it hard through this regulatory capture that some of the US CSPs put in place, you know, all these ho…”
Gurley: US Pressure Could Provoke ASML to Defy China Export Bans
“I could easily see us provoking Europe to the point where the ASML team just says, well, screw it. We don't care what you say. We're selling to China.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Has Shelved Multiple Products Due to Compute Shortages
“I think they have four or five products literally sitting on the shelf because they don't have the compute to deliver it to customers.”
Gerstner: Winning consumer AI platform will capture 70% to 80% market share
“So I don't think it's going to be win or take as much I don't think we're going to see a 99% monopoly here, but I do expect that, you know, we're going to see 70 or 80% share go to the winner.”
Gerstner: Public companies report Google organic clicks down 20-40% YTD
“We have public companies now reporting, that are reporting their Google organic clicks are down 20 to 40% year to date.”
Gerstner: DeepSeek has displaced Meta's Llama in enterprise AI experimentation
“I heard from several inference players that you and I are friends with that all of a sudden DeepSeek rather than Lama is the enterprise open source model of choice that everybody's experimenting with and playing with.”
Gerstner: X is the top news platform in every country worldwide
“X to me is so interesting because they have a platform that is the number one news platform in every country on the planet.”
Gerstner: OpenAI is accelerating and widening its consumer AI lead
“The odds on favorite there has to be open AI. I think they continue to widen their gap, by the way, Bill, I think they're accelerating at scale, but that's where the race is.”
Gurley: Leaked OpenAI forecasts show $20B annual losses in 2025 and 2026
“There was someone published the internal forecast of OpenAI, which included, I think, in 25 and 26, losing twenty billion each year.”
Gerstner: Apple has opted out of building frontier AI models
“Apple has self-selected out of the race, right? They're not building a big model.”
Gerstner: US will cut $500B to $1T from federal spending over next few years
“It does mean that we're probably going to take five hundred billion to a trillion dollars out of federal spending over the course of the next couple of years.”
Gurley: DeepSeek innovated by separating parameters to run more experts
“Deep Seek had put more experts simultaneously against a problem. They were able to do that because they figured out a way to
separate the parameters and work on things with smaller parameter counts faster, which no one else had done before. And so you end up…”
Gurley: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia's CUDA framework for low-level optimization
“One, it's validated now that they went around CUDA, and I just think that's interesting.”
Gerstner: DeepSeek's training run was up to 50% more efficient than o1
“Now, of course, they talked about the six million dollar final training run, and this, it's important to understand, this is also correct. Right? And as I said on CNBC, this compares to about 10 or fifteen million for O-one out of OpenAI. So apples to apples, …”
Gerstner: Export controls will prevent DeepSeek from keeping pace with OpenAI
“So, said another way, this was the moment in time where their compute comparison to OpenAI was the closest it's ever going to be for a few reasons. Number one, with the export controls, they acknowledge They, they're going to have a very hard time keeping up w…”
Gerstner: OpenAI and other frontier labs will open-source models in 2025
“Sam and the industry response seems to be tipping more in the direction where we're going to go open to. And my suspicion is you will see that this year you know, out of folks like open AI”
Gurley: Tariffs on BYD will make Detroit automakers less competitive
“Detroit is not globally competitive anymore, and putting tariffs on BYD's cars is not going to make Detroit more competitive. It's going to make them less competitive, and they're going to fall further behind.”
Gerstner: Semiconductor tariffs will slow US AI research and hurt tech leadership
“So that would be a tax on, on the NVIDIAs and AMDs and others, and it would be a tax on Meta and Amazon and all the folks that would have to pay that tax, which likely means that you get less chips purchased and less AI research, right? So if our number one go…”
Gerstner: A credible $1T budget cut plan will bring interest rates down
“If we do this and if we tell the American people, you know, that we're going to do this and we put together a believable plan where you're going to cut a trillion dollars and balance the budget in, in the next few years, I'll tell you what's going to happen, r…”
Gerstner: Congressional Democrats will file federal lawsuit against DOGE budget cuts
“I do expect that Schumer or a group of members as early as this week is going to file you know, a claim, a lawsuit in federal court where they say that there's a violation of the constitution under article one, section nine, clause seven, where Congress has th…”
Gerstner: DeepSeek and OpenAI Deep Research will unleash massive inference demand
“I think we're going to need way more compute than we have. I think deep seek unleashes the amount of inference we're going to need. I think deep research out of open AI unleashes that.”
Gerstner: Trump expanded Stargate project scale from $100B to $200B at Mar-a-Lago
“Trump, when they were down in Mar-a-Lago, took it from a hundred billion to two hundred billion, and now they got to five hundred billion, which served everybody around the table really well.”
Gerstner: No entity has $100B or $500B upfront for Stargate
“Elon is 100% right. Nobody has five hundred billion dollars. In fact, nobody has a hundred billion dollars to contribute to this on day one.”
Gurley: Nvidia rivals cannot ramp chip production fast enough
“Even if an NVIDIA competitor showed up, I don't think they can create enough production in the amount of time you need.”
Gerstner: Anthropic has under $1B revenue and lacks rival traction
“You know, is Anthropic going to be able to show, you know, they have less than a billion in revenue. They don't really have they have good, great models, I would argue, but they don't have the consumer or the enterprise traction that the other folks do.”
Gerstner: Chip and power bottlenecks will force subscale AI mergers
“I think you are going to be chip constrained. I think you are going to be power constrained. You know, for the next several years, and I think if you're subscale, On any level, I think those players ultimately have to get folded into a much larger entity.”
Gerstner: Congress plans federal preemption and moratoriums on state AI laws
“I coordinated some meetings this weekend between him and a lot of CEOs of leading AI companies. And there is a plan by Congress on the one hand to have federal preemption. Clearly this is a matter of interstate commerce. So we should have federal preemption, b…”
Gerstner: Trump will commit to balancing budget in March State of the Union
“I think in the President's State of the Union address in the first week of March, he's gonna make a commitment to balance the budget in his first term in office.”
Gerstner: AI productivity will drive a five-year golden era of margin expansion
“I've said that I think this moment that we're in the next five years is going to be a golden moment of margin expansion for technology businesses, and frankly, all businesses. Human productivity is going to go up, which means the cost to do exactly, you know, …”
Gerstner: 2025 Market Returns Depend on Non-Tech Earnings and Sub-5% Rates
“I don't think we're going to see a year that looks anything like 20, 23 or 20, 24 anyway. But if you just said, can we get to 10 or 15% on the market? A couple of things have to happen. You have to see this acceleration in earnings, number one, and number two,…”
Gerstner: Big tech AI CapEx investments will materialize in 2025
“And I think what we can put to bed based upon the conversations we've had, what people are hearing out there, the conversations at CES, there are going to, these investments are going to show up in 20, 25, right?”
Gerstner: AI will remain compute-constrained through the end of 2025
“And so I think the investments we're seeing in 20, 25 Frankly, I don't even think it's going to get us to the point where we have compute surplus. I think we're going to end this year compute constrained, and I think a lot of the frontier labs feel the same.”
Gerstner: Nvidia will not lose AI market share from 2024 to 2025
“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”
Gerstner: DOGE and Trump will cut hundreds of billions from federal budget
“My forecast is that Doge is actually, and this administration are actually going to cut a lot out of the budget. And you know, I think that you have the leadership in the House and the Senate, and so if they cut hundreds of billions of dollars out of this budg…”
Gerstner: Tax cuts and AI productivity will accelerate US growth
“Cutting taxes, three to four hundred billion dollars a year is going to accelerate it. We are going to get efficiency and productivity gains from AI. Like these things are happening.”
Gerstner: xAI will serve as the hyperscaler powering Musk's companies
“A hundred percent. I think there's no doubt about it. It already is, and it will continue to be. Like, he has a Koretsu, as they say in Japan, of companies that can leverage each other's insights, and I fully expect that they will.”
Gerstner: Google and OpenAI will launch superior coding agents in 2025
“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”
Patel: NVIDIA's Jensen Huang only plans 12 to 18 months ahead
“Well, the funny thing is a lot of people at NVIDIA will say Jensen doesn't plan more than a year or year and a half out. Because they change things and they'll deploy them out that fast, right? No semi, every other semiconductor company takes years to deploy, …”
Patel: NVIDIA is cutting Blackwell margins to compete with custom ASICs
“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”
Patel: AI models may improve faster over the next 6-12 months
“We may actually see models improve faster in the next six months to a year than we saw them improve in the last year. Because there's this new axis of synthetic data generation and the amount of compute we can throw at it is, we're still right here in the scal…”
Patel: AI labs have tapped out human-written internet text data
“Humans post on the internet every day, and we've already tapped that out, right? Kind of more or less on a text.”
Gerstner: NVIDIA trades around 30 P/E compared to Cisco's 2000 peak
“Cisco, you know, 2000 and we'll show it on the pod, but you know, they peaked at like a 120 PE. Right. And yeah, you know, if you look at the fall off that occurred in revenue and in EBITDA, you know, and then it had 70% compression in the priced earnings mult…”
Patel: Reasoning models will see humongous performance gains within a year
“And so this, the performance improvements we'll get out of these models is, is humongous, right? In, in the coming, you know, six months to a year in certain benchmarks where you have functional verifiers.”
Patel: Microsoft earns 50% to 70% gross margins on OpenAI models
“Microsoft's earning 50 to 70% gross margins on OpenAI models, and that's with the profit share they get to get, or the share that they give OpenAI, right?”