The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 278 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 28 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman predicts OpenAI's nonprofit will become the largest nonprofit ever
“And also as Satya said, create what we believe will be the largest nonprofit ever.”
Altman: Cheap Mass Energy Will Burn Existing Power Contract Signers
“A very cheap form of energy comes online soon at mass scale, and a lot of people are going to be extremely burned with existing contracts they've signed.”
Nadella: Hyperscalers will run heterogeneous hardware fleets across multiple chipmakers
“And it's not, and by the way, it's going to be heterogeneous. Obviously, Jensen's super competitive. Lisa is going to come. You know, Hawk's going to produce things from Broadcom. We will all do our own. So, there's going to be a combination. So, you want to r…”
Gurley: Circular AI financing hides leverage and delays demand slowdown detection
“I think what this does, this overall situation is First of all, I think it's driven by competition at this point. And like the first step into the gray zone was way back at the beginning. And so now I think we're fairly pregnant with it. So I think it's a comp…”
Gerstner: OpenAI generating $150B in 2030 revenue is 'more than plausible'
“Is it plausible they could have a hundred and fifty billion dollars of revenue in 2030, and I would argue as an investor that it's more than plausible that they could have a hundred and fifty billion in revenue, but I think it makes it very, very difficult for…”
Gurley: Patchwork State AI Rules Will Inevitably Slow US Players
“If we implement 50 different state Rules that these companies have to jump through and companies that are competitors that are competing in the broader world don't have any of them. There is zero chance. That's not going to create mud and slow down the U S pla…”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Huang: AI compute glut unlikely until general-purpose computing fully transitions
“Until, until we fully Convert all general purpose computing to accelerated computing in AI until we do that. I think the chances are extremely low.”
Gerstner: NVIDIA will likely be the first $10 trillion company
“I think NVIDIA will likely be the first 10 trillion dollar company”
Huang: Elon Musk will likely build a gigawatt AI cluster first
“I would not be surprised if he gets to a gigawatt before anybody else does.”
Huang: Nvidia will eventually get the opportunity to compete in China
“These things will get sorted out, and we will have the opportunity to go compete in that China market.”
Huang: $100k H-1B fee might accelerate investment outside the US
“It also has an unintended consequence. It might accelerate investment outside United States.”
Huang: AI and physical robotics fusion will be solved within five years
“In the next five years, one of the things that, that is really cool that's going to get solved is the fusion of artificial intelligence and mechatronics, robotics.”
Godement: Reinforcement fine-tuning will become the norm for pushing AI capability frontiers
“Pushing the frontier on, like, actual capabilities, my hunch is that RFT will pretty much become the norm. Like, you know, if you are actually pushing in your field, like, you know, intelligence, like, you know, to a pretty high point, like, at some point, lik…”
Godement: Healthcare will benefit most from AI in next 1–2 years
“Frankly, I think healthcare is probably the industry that will benefit the most from AI in the next, like, year or two.”
Gurley: Global car manufacturing employment could drop to 400k in 5-10 years
“Because of automation, the entire global, you know, potential for car manufacturing in Five or 10 years from now could be like 400 K total.”
Gurley: Protective tariffs will lead to inflation and lower US living standards
“Now your consumers don't have access to those price points, and so you're buying inferior goods at inflated prices, and that's going to lead to inflation and prosperity and standard of living levels dropping in the US.”
Madra: US open-source AI will hit the global top three by 2026
“I think if we look at Q four this year or Q one next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, that a top three worldwide model will be a U S based open source model.”
Gurley: Startups will build enterprise-sanctioned versions of Chinese AI models
“I just think you're gonna see, just like you saw Kimmy and Zipu pop up. I wouldn't be shocked if you see other new entrants pop up that are trying to be like sanctioned or, you know, cleaned, you know, use Red Hat as an example, Sonny version of these things, …”
Madra: Enterprise usage will shift back to US models if OpenAI open-sources
“With OpenAI's release and, you know, Meta charges back, or even if some of these startups emerge that, you know, we can point at, I think we'll see a huge shift back towards those models versus, versus the Chinese ones.”
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025
“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”
Gerstner: The US and China will strike a major deal before year-end
“I think that there's going to be a big Chinese deal done before the year's out.”
Gerstner: AI productivity gains will cause companies to shrink headcount
“My sense is that companies are generally going to get smaller, right on the backs of the productivity gains from AI, but they'll redeploy some of those profits into these areas.”
The winning AI company will reach a $5T to $10T valuation
“At a hundred billion in revenue, it seems to me that this company could be on a path to being the most valuable company in the world, right? Five to 10 trillion dollar business in the fullness of time, which frankly would not surprise me for the winner in the …”
Gerstner: Rare earth shortages could disrupt the US economy for six quarters
“If we don't do this, then we're going to have a massively disrupted economy over the next six quarters, slowing down economic growth and causing problems and critical shortages in parts to the military, in parts to our US auto industry, et cetera.”
Gerstner: Gulf sovereigns will out-invest all others in AI infrastructure
“All three of these countries are going to invest aggressively at a level that really no other sovereign on a global basis is investing at to ensure that this part of the world becomes a center for technology and AI.”
Gerstner Predicts NVIDIA May Soon Sell Deprecated AI Chips to China
“I think that we could still see as part of the negotiation over the next 90 days, I would not be terribly surprised to see NVIDIA allowed to sell some form of deprecated chip into China”
Gerstner Predicts OpenAI Will Release an Open-Source Model by Summer 2025
“I do think you're going to see the open AI open source model. I mean, Sam's talked about it many times. I think you're going to see that in the next 30 days or so, certainly by the end of summer, but I would guess sooner rather than later.”
Gerstner: Navarro-style protectionism will shrink the U.S. AI gap with China
“If we head in the direction of Navarro, it's quite clear to me that we're going to so anger the rest of the world that, ah, the chance that the rest of the world is going to run on US compute. I think what we do in that instance is you move everybody in the di…”
Gurley: Tesla or Apple could plausibly get kicked out of China
“Both Tesla and Apple have a huge amount of revenue in China, and when you sense that this thing may be escalating or that there are ripple effects going back and forth, what one plausible thing that could happen is either one of them get kicked out of the coun…”
Gerstner: US tariffs will settle at 5-10% globally, 25-30% on China
“I think we're going to probably land somewhere in this kind of five to 10% terrace for the rest of the world. Right. If you add that up, that's going to be somewhere order of magnitude, two hundred billion dollars of tariffs, and you're not going to end up at …”
Gerstner: Enacted US Tariffs on China Will Not Land at 54%
“There's no, no way that lands, I think at 54%. That's the headline tariffs.”
Gerstner: US tariffs will ultimately settle around $300B to $400B
“I think we're going to land the plane here closer to three or four hundred billion in tariffs, not six or 700, and certainly not a trillion in tariffs.”
Gurley: AI agents will disrupt Google's high-fee ad model to OpenAI's benefit
“I personally don't think there's any way when that world you're talking about, that agent world evolves, that that partner in a hotel is gonna pay a fee anywhere close To the fee that's paid to Google by someone that's marketing a service that I always say usi…”
Gurley: The next 3-6 months will dictate AI leadership for 5-10 years
“Cause I think it's a really critical window. I'm talking about like next three to six months could dictate who's standing on top of the hill five, 10 years from now.”
Gerstner: Targeting $1T in Tariffs Would Cause a US Recession
“My belief is that if we're targeting tariff revenues going from sixty-five billion to a trillion, I don't think the US economy is prepared for that, and I think that pushes us into a recession.”
Gerstner: U.S. Will Frame European M&A Enforcement as Trade Barrier
“And so if the Europeans continue to bite our ankles, I think this is one of the things the administration is going to point out on April second and just say, like, we can't have this. Right. You can't effectively thwart business activity between two American c…”
Gerstner: Most Software Code Will Be AI-Written by End of 2025
“By the end of the year,
Right?
Most code is going to either be refactored or written from the start using machine learning. It's going to be coding agents that are helping to do that.”
Gerstner: US AI Export Rules Will Help Huawei Dominate Global Markets
“This diffusion rule will make it hard for us to get chips to Saudi Arabia, to the UAE, to India, to, you know, our friends in, in Southeast Asia, and it makes it hard through this regulatory capture that some of the US CSPs put in place, you know, all these ho…”
Gurley: US Pressure Could Provoke ASML to Defy China Export Bans
“I could easily see us provoking Europe to the point where the ASML team just says, well, screw it. We don't care what you say. We're selling to China.”
Gerstner: Winning consumer AI platform will capture 70% to 80% market share
“So I don't think it's going to be win or take as much I don't think we're going to see a 99% monopoly here, but I do expect that, you know, we're going to see 70 or 80% share go to the winner.”
Gerstner: OpenAI is accelerating and widening its consumer AI lead
“The odds on favorite there has to be open AI. I think they continue to widen their gap, by the way, Bill, I think they're accelerating at scale, but that's where the race is.”
Gerstner: US will cut $500B to $1T from federal spending over next few years
“It does mean that we're probably going to take five hundred billion to a trillion dollars out of federal spending over the course of the next couple of years.”
Gerstner: Export controls will prevent DeepSeek from keeping pace with OpenAI
“So, said another way, this was the moment in time where their compute comparison to OpenAI was the closest it's ever going to be for a few reasons. Number one, with the export controls, they acknowledge They, they're going to have a very hard time keeping up w…”