The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 450 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 9 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: Trump Administration Repealed Biden AI Diffusion Rule in May 2025
“The Trump administration just repealed the Biden diffusion rule in May of 25.”
Gerstner: US Secured Trillion-Dollar Investment Deals With Saudi, Qatar, UAE
“In the first five months of this year, we would have gotten a trillion dollar deal signed with Saudi in terms of their investment in the United States, another trillion dollars with Qatar. Another trillion dollars with the UAE. Those are all investments into t…”
Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle
“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”
Gerstner: $2T in tariffs is a 600-700 bps GDP headwind
“That's what sent the markets down 20%, because we knew two trillion dollars in tariffs is probably a 600 to 700 basis point headwind to GDP.”
Gerstner: House renamed Invest America to 'MAGA account'
“In the House version of the bill, they renamed it the MAGA account, which stood for Money Account for Growth and Advancement.”
Gurley: Delaware Court Legal Fee Multipliers Far Exceed Federal Courts
“What he found was he compared a bunch of Delaware judgments with a bunch of judgments in the federal courts. And he looked at a bunch of different breakings, but one of the breaks was, you know, what's the frequency of awards seven times or higher? And what ar…”
Gerstner: The US banned Nvidia H20 chip exports to China
“What we did last week is the US did ban H-twenties going to China”
Gerstner: Banning Nvidia H20 exports increases US trade deficit by $15B
“I think NVIDIA sold, you know, 12 or fifteen billion dollars worth of H-twenties. So if you ban those, then your trade deficit with China goes up by fifteen billion dollars.”
Gerstner: Huawei AI chips already surpass Nvidia's H20 performance
“And we just unilaterally disarmed around that in a way that doesn't even advantage us against Huawei because their chips are already surpassing the H.”
Gerstner: China No Longer Depends on Nvidia for AI Inference
“BYD is designing a better car, and CATL is designing a better battery, and their glow, their vertically integrated supply chain around semiconductors no longer is dependent upon NVIDIA for inference. Now they're running inference at DeepSeq on the Ascend nine …”
Gerstner: OpenAI Has Shelved Multiple Products Due to Compute Shortages
“I think they have four or five products literally sitting on the shelf because they don't have the compute to deliver it to customers.”
Gerstner: Public companies report Google organic clicks down 20-40% YTD
“We have public companies now reporting, that are reporting their Google organic clicks are down 20 to 40% year to date.”
Gerstner: DeepSeek has displaced Meta's Llama in enterprise AI experimentation
“I heard from several inference players that you and I are friends with that all of a sudden DeepSeek rather than Lama is the enterprise open source model of choice that everybody's experimenting with and playing with.”
Gerstner: X is the top news platform in every country worldwide
“X to me is so interesting because they have a platform that is the number one news platform in every country on the planet.”
Gurley: Leaked OpenAI forecasts show $20B annual losses in 2025 and 2026
“There was someone published the internal forecast of OpenAI, which included, I think, in 25 and 26, losing twenty billion each year.”
Gerstner: Apple has opted out of building frontier AI models
“Apple has self-selected out of the race, right? They're not building a big model.”
Gurley: DeepSeek innovated by separating parameters to run more experts
“Deep Seek had put more experts simultaneously against a problem. They were able to do that because they figured out a way to
separate the parameters and work on things with smaller parameter counts faster, which no one else had done before. And so you end up…”
Gurley: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia's CUDA framework for low-level optimization
“One, it's validated now that they went around CUDA, and I just think that's interesting.”
Gerstner: DeepSeek's training run was up to 50% more efficient than o1
“Now, of course, they talked about the six million dollar final training run, and this, it's important to understand, this is also correct. Right? And as I said on CNBC, this compares to about 10 or fifteen million for O-one out of OpenAI. So apples to apples, …”
Gerstner: Trump expanded Stargate project scale from $100B to $200B at Mar-a-Lago
“Trump, when they were down in Mar-a-Lago, took it from a hundred billion to two hundred billion, and now they got to five hundred billion, which served everybody around the table really well.”
Gerstner: No entity has $100B or $500B upfront for Stargate
“Elon is 100% right. Nobody has five hundred billion dollars. In fact, nobody has a hundred billion dollars to contribute to this on day one.”
Gerstner: Anthropic has under $1B revenue and lacks rival traction
“You know, is Anthropic going to be able to show, you know, they have less than a billion in revenue. They don't really have they have good, great models, I would argue, but they don't have the consumer or the enterprise traction that the other folks do.”
Gerstner: Congress plans federal preemption and moratoriums on state AI laws
“I coordinated some meetings this weekend between him and a lot of CEOs of leading AI companies. And there is a plan by Congress on the one hand to have federal preemption. Clearly this is a matter of interstate commerce. So we should have federal preemption, b…”
Patel: NVIDIA's Jensen Huang only plans 12 to 18 months ahead
“Well, the funny thing is a lot of people at NVIDIA will say Jensen doesn't plan more than a year or year and a half out. Because they change things and they'll deploy them out that fast, right? No semi, every other semiconductor company takes years to deploy, …”
Patel: NVIDIA is cutting Blackwell margins to compete with custom ASICs
“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”
Patel: AI labs have tapped out human-written internet text data
“Humans post on the internet every day, and we've already tapped that out, right? Kind of more or less on a text.”
Gerstner: NVIDIA trades around 30 P/E compared to Cisco's 2000 peak
“Cisco, you know, 2000 and we'll show it on the pod, but you know, they peaked at like a 120 PE. Right. And yeah, you know, if you look at the fall off that occurred in revenue and in EBITDA, you know, and then it had 70% compression in the priced earnings mult…”
Patel: Microsoft earns 50% to 70% gross margins on OpenAI models
“Microsoft's earning 50 to 70% gross margins on OpenAI models, and that's with the profit share they get to get, or the share that they give OpenAI, right?”
Patel: Samsung holds almost zero share in HBM memory, especially at NVIDIA
“In HBM, Samsung has almost no share, right? Especially at NVIDIA”
Patel: Standard high-end server memory yields higher gross margins than HBM
“The gross margins on HBM have not been fantastic. They've been good, but they haven't been fantastic. Actually, regular memory, high-end, like, server memory that is not HBM is actually higher gross margin than HBM.”
Patel: Apple accounts for over 70% of Google's TPU rental revenue
“There's only one company accounts for over 70% of Google's revenue from TPUs as far as I understand, and that's Apple.”
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Patel: Broadcom is building an NVSwitch competitor for AMD and others
“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”
Nadella: Google makes more money on Windows than all of Microsoft
“I mean, I always say Google makes more money on Windows than all of Microsoft. I mean, literally.”
Gurley: 35% of Chinese university grads study STEM versus under 10% in US
“The number of graduates in China's University system that are STEM is 35%, and that number is below 10 in the US.”
Gerstner: 3% annual spending cuts would balance US budget by 2029
“Even at three and a half percent growth for the next four years, you balance the budget in 2029 by simply reducing the size of government three percent a year back to trend line.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 delivered 100x improvement in MPCI
“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”
Gurley: Over 1,000 private tech unicorns cannot currently raise up-rounds
“So that means there's over a thousand private unicorns that, that are somewhat stuck right now and could not raise enough rounds.”
Gerstner: Huang believes NVIDIA can triple revenue with 25% headcount growth
“He thinks they can three X, you know, the top line of the business while only adding 25% more humans because they can have a 100,000 autonomous agents doing things like building the software, doing the security, and that he becomes really a prompt agent, not o…”
Gerstner: AI clusters scaling to 1 million GPUs are already being planned
“Now, I think these things, Bill, are already being planned and built.”
Huang: NVIDIA delivers 2x-3x performance and cost improvements every single year
“We're trying to build a brand new one every single year, and every single year we deliver two or three times more performance. As a result, every single year, we reduce the cost by two or three times. Every single year, we improve the energy efficiency by two …”
Huang: NVIDIA could not design Hopper, Blackwell, or Rubin chips without AI agents
“Our cyber security system today can't run without Without our own agents. We have agents helping to design chips. Hopper wouldn't be possible. Blackwell wouldn't be possible. Ruben don't even think about it.”
Huang: NVIDIA's Nemotron is the world's best reward model
“Our model, Nemo Tron, is, is the best model in the world for reward systems. And so, it is the best critique.”
Zawalick: PG&E Applied for 20-Year NRC License Renewal for Diablo Canyon
“Unit one's current license expires November second of 2024.
And it'll be really interesting to look at what's going on November third and fourth with our grid had we taken unit one off.
So we're right there, right?
unit two's current license expires in August…”
Zawalick: All US commercial nuclear waste fits on one football field
“You roll up all of that footprint, and you got to see it's very small and you take all of the over hundred units in the United States, it would fit in the size of a football field up to the goalposts.”
Gurley: Nuclear startups pay $60M in NRC fees for first approval
“The NRC, which we haven't talked much about, but the Regulatory Commission here in the US is fee-based, and all the people that are playing in this market I've talked to say you're probably sixty million to first approval. Just on fees, the startup's gonna pay…”