The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gurley: Standalone owned AV fleets like Waymo require hundreds of billions
“Someone trying to build a completely separate fleet, I just don't think it works. Like, and I would encourage anyone that believes in it, or anyone that's a, let's call them a Waymo advocate, let's build a public Google sheet of the 20 year financial statement…”
Gurley: Waymo and Cruise cannot compete if neural networks solve autonomy
“If let's, let's make an assertion. If this type of neural network approach is the right answer. Yes. And I want to reason you once again, you know, Occam's razor seems that way to me, then who could compete in one of the companies or two, you know, several of …”
Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset
“While people are saying that, that the Waymos should be worth a hundred and seventy billion inside of Google, you can buy shares of Baidu for zero enterprise value. It's a thirty billion market cap, thirty billion in cash from the books.”
Gurley: Chinese solid-state LiDAR costs $130 per car vs Waymo's $5,000
“Chinese LIDAR is solid state and designed very differently than the LIDAR that Waymo's using, and it's actually in China right now is, I think, being priced at like a 130 dollars a car, this solid state MEMS LIDAR, whereas the Waymo LIDAR is like 5000 dollars …”
Gurley: Owned AV fleets face an unwinnable peak versus average demand dilemma
“Are you going to build the fleet to average or peak? And by the way, you lose whatever your answer is. If you build it to average, you're not going to be able to serve your customers during the peak at all. Like they're only going to be disappointed. And if yo…”
Gurley: Operating a robotaxi fleet service requires $100B in CapEx
“I've always thought this model that we're going to build this incredible car and our business model is going to be to run a service like the CapEx. Like if you just build a 10 year model, the CapEx you need, like they would have to go raise a hundred billion.”
Gurley: Waymo and Tesla Licensing Tech to Incumbent Automakers Seems Likely
“Both Waymo and Tesla have ended at potentially licensing. And so, that would be an interesting maybe that happens down the road between the, you know, the historical incumbents and these two new companies and whether that type of model plays out seems quite li…”