The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Gurley: There is no chance of competing simultaneously with TSMC and Nvidia
“And then some of them, and I, once again, I don't know that there was an exact quote, but the idea that you're going to build a fab is And compete, you're gonna compete with TSMC and NVIDIA at the same time. Like, no chance. Like, no chance.”
Bill Gurley Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 1:01:44 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Haas: TSMC leading-edge capacity and HBM will constrain AI buildout
“Fab capacity does become an issue. No, no doubt. Because when you start thinking about three nanometer and two nanometer you know, TSMC is, is the leader, is the, Only game on town on some level. So I think that is a potential limitation or at least constraint…”
Rene Haas Jan 23, 2025 ▶ 42:57 Stargate, Executive Orders, TikTok, DOGE, Public Valuations | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Patel: SK Hynix memory is NVIDIA's largest COGS item, surpassing TSMC
“When you look at the cost of goods sold of NVIDIA their highest cost of goods sold is not TSMC, which is a Thing that people don't realize. It's actually HBM memory primarily SK Hynix.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:02:27 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Contradicted
Gurley: TSMC is implementing an across-the-board 20% price increase
“TSMC said they're gonna do across the board, 20% price increase.”
Bill Gurley Oct 31, 2024 ▶ 52:03 Ep19. State of Venture, AI Scaling, Elections | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Jamin Ball · Bg2 Pod
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