The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: There is a real chance TikTok shuts down within 18 months
“So I think there's a real chance that when we're looking at this, 12 to 18 months from now, that it's an absolute no go, that they can't find a middle ground and that the app is shut down.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2024 ▶ 1:07:29 Ep5. Stock Comp, AI Cold War, Valuations for LLM | BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Bob Mylod · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: 90% of ByteDance's Business Is Outside TikTok US
“About 90% of ByteDance's business is not TikTok US. 90% of the value of the company is things like Doyan, which is the Chinese version of TikTok, and Daobao, which is the Chinese version of ChatGPT, and TikTok around the world, and so there's a huge and profit…”
Brad Gerstner Apr 4, 2025 ▶ 1:10:21 Liberation Day, Tariffs, US v China Open Source, OpenAI, $CRWV, TikTok | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: China will retaliate if TikTok US is shut down or banned
“It's hard for me to see a world where TikTok US is shut down or banned, where there's not some response by China.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 21, 2024 ▶ 1:08:05 Ep5. Stock Comp, AI Cold War, Valuations for LLM | BG2 with Bill Gurley, Brad Gerstner, & Bob Mylod · Bg2 Pod
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