The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxi will likely launch in select cities by Q2 2025
“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 25:33 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 13 will deliver another 10x MPCI improvement
“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”
Brad Gerstner Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 24:13 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 delivered 100x improvement in MPCI
“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 24:00 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 1:05:08 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Tesla has not applied for regulatory driverless permits
“Tesla's, one, they haven't even applied for those things, but we don't have them driverless on the road yet.”
Bill Gurley Apr 29, 2024 ▶ 52:00 Ep8. AI Models, Data Scaling, Enterprise & Personal AI | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Tesla pay package plaintiff lawyers are seeking $5B–$6B in fees
“The lawyers that, that pursued this case are asking for five or six billion dollars in payment.”
Bill Gurley Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 52:28 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: White House EV summit excluded Tesla despite 95% market share
“Holding an EV summit without inviting Tesla, who has like, 95% of the shipments in the US, is, I don't know how you even do it with a straight face.”
Bill Gurley Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 21:01 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: Tesla FSD surpassed 1B miles, adding 1B per month
“I think they've hit over a billion miles driven now with FSD. And by our estimates, they're adding over a billion miles a month.”
Brad Gerstner Apr 18, 2024 ▶ 43:40 Ep7. The Great IPO Debate, Tesla Robotaxi v Uber, Tech Check | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gurley: Tesla Full Self-Driving Is Traditional AI, Not LLM-Based
“One thing that, that I think is really different between the full self-driving data point and is that it's not built on LLMs. It's a traditional use case of AI, which allows it to I think have much more finite input, output, and that example use case is fairly…”
Bill Gurley Apr 4, 2024 ▶ 6:17 Ep6. AI Demand / Supply - Models, Agents, the $2T Compute Build Out, Need for More Nuclear & More · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: Tesla's 2018 compensation package had 70% shareholder approval
“They had 70% shareholder approval.”
Bill Gurley Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 56:31 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
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