The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxi will likely launch in select cities by Q2 2025
“I think next year really is the year of achievement of a safety standard that allows RoboTaxi to go into action, probably in Q two. They'll pick a couple of cities.”
Gurley: Companies Need to Consider Leaving Delaware as Fast as Possible
“I think companies need to consider leaving Delaware as fast as possible.”
Gurley: Elon Musk's Pay Package Is the Most Shareholder-Aligned Ever
“The Elon package is the most shareholder aligned CEO compensation package I've ever seen. I would be thrilled if all of my hired CEOs had a very similar package.”
Gurley: Waymo and Cruise cannot compete if neural networks solve autonomy
“If let's, let's make an assertion. If this type of neural network approach is the right answer. Yes. And I want to reason you once again, you know, Occam's razor seems that way to me, then who could compete in one of the companies or two, you know, several of …”
Gurley: Musk's 2018 Tesla compensation package was among most shareholder-aligned ever
“It may be like one of the most, you know, shareholder aligned incentive packages ever, which is, is exactly what you would think Delaware courts would be looking after.”
Gerstner: Tesla made more FSD progress in 12 months than past 7 years
“Tesla rebuilding their models, For how they do self-driving around imitation learning and all this interesting stuff going on over there. Like, you know, I think they probably made more progress in the last 12 months than in the last seven years.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD v12 will be a ChatGPT moment for autonomous driving
“I think this is going to be a bit of a chat GPT moment for full self-driving, but what it really, it just reminded me of the magic of this moment.”
Gerstner: Tesla is the Only US Automaker Capable of Global Competition
“Today, as Farley said, there is not a U.S. Manufacturer, sans perhaps Tesla, that comes anywhere close to being able to compete in that way on a global basis.”
Gurley: Tesla or Apple could plausibly get kicked out of China
“Both Tesla and Apple have a huge amount of revenue in China, and when you sense that this thing may be escalating or that there are ripple effects going back and forth, what one plausible thing that could happen is either one of them get kicked out of the coun…”
Gerstner: xAI will serve as the hyperscaler powering Musk's companies
“A hundred percent. I think there's no doubt about it. It already is, and it will continue to be. Like, he has a Koretsu, as they say in Japan, of companies that can leverage each other's insights, and I fully expect that they will.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 13 will deliver another 10x MPCI improvement
“And then with the launch of FSD 13 in the next couple of weeks, we expect another 10 X improvement. In terms of that MPCI”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 delivered 100x improvement in MPCI
“By the middle of this year when they released 12.5, it showed a hundred X improvement in miles per critical disengagement.”
Gerstner: Chinese AV developers are three years behind Tesla FSD
“She said, you know, they're still catching up to FSD 11. Now remember, FSD 11 was, so they're like three years behind on full self-driving. Those were still the deterministic models before the big breakthrough of 12.3.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12.5 and 12.6 will be 100% hands-free
“On 12.5 and 12.6, we think they get to the point where they're a hundred percent hands free. So it doesn't constantly ding you to grab the wheel and you can really start looking away from the road for longer periods of time.”
Gurley: Tesla has not applied for regulatory driverless permits
“Tesla's, one, they haven't even applied for those things, but we don't have them driverless on the road yet.”
Gurley: Tesla's end-to-end AI approach has much better chance of achieving FSD
“It seems to me this approach has a much better chance of going all the way and of being successful and certainly of being maintainable and reasonable.”
Gerstner: Tesla's autonomous driving engineering team is roughly one-tenth the size of Cruise's
“I think the engineering team working on this at Tesla is about one-tenth the size of the teams at Cruiser.”
Gurley: Tesla uses generic open-source AI models for FSD V12
“And these AI models that Tesla's used for FSD-II are these generic open source AI models that you can find on hugging face, you know, and they obviously customize them.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD 12 model improves 5x to 10x faster monthly than prior systems
“In fact, I think what, you know, we learned was that the rate of improvement of this is order of magnitude five to 10 X better per month as a model versus the rate of improvement of those Prior systems.”
Gurley: Tesla pay package plaintiff lawyers are seeking $5B–$6B in fees
“The lawyers that, that pursued this case are asking for five or six billion dollars in payment.”
Gerstner: Autonomous driving will shift entirely to imitation learning over rules
“Well, here's where I think the world's going. We met with these robotics companies. We meet with Tesla, et cetera. Imitation learning, okay? They're not even gonna know what the stop sign is, or the traffic light is, or the dog in the street. They're not gonna…”
Gerstner: Tesla Robotaxis will require Hardware 4 compute
“It's going to require hardware for in order to run all these cars.”
Gurley: White House EV summit excluded Tesla despite 95% market share
“Holding an EV summit without inviting Tesla, who has like, 95% of the shipments in the US, is, I don't know how you even do it with a straight face.”
Gerstner: Tesla FSD surpassed 1B miles, adding 1B per month
“I think they've hit over a billion miles driven now with FSD. And by our estimates, they're adding over a billion miles a month.”
Gerstner: Tesla will eventually need to open its robotaxi network to Uber
“So I think they probably launch it you know you know, on a standalone basis. They get a lot of excitement and a lot of customer love for it. But my sense is by the time you scale this, it probably does have to be an open system.”
Gurley: BYD and Chinese OEMs are most likely to rival Tesla
“If I had to handicap anybody, it would probably be BYD or one of the Chinese manufacturers.”
Gurley: Waymo and Tesla Licensing Tech to Incumbent Automakers Seems Likely
“Both Waymo and Tesla have ended at potentially licensing. And so, that would be an interesting maybe that happens down the road between the, you know, the historical incumbents and these two new companies and whether that type of model plays out seems quite li…”
Gurley: Tesla Full Self-Driving Is Traditional AI, Not LLM-Based
“One thing that, that I think is really different between the full self-driving data point and is that it's not built on LLMs. It's a traditional use case of AI, which allows it to I think have much more finite input, output, and that example use case is fairly…”
Gerstner: Tesla earns $2,500 per car with 7% FSD penetration
“If you look at the unit economics of a Tesla, right? With no FSD, they're making about two and a half thousand bucks on a vehicle. If you look at it today, they have about seven percent penetration of FSD.”