why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Trump expanded Stargate project scale from $100B to $200B at Mar-a-Lago
“Trump, when they were down in Mar-a-Lago, took it from a hundred billion to two hundred billion, and now they got to five hundred billion, which served everybody around the table really well.”
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Nvidia rivals cannot ramp chip production fast enough
“Even if an NVIDIA competitor showed up, I don't think they can create enough production in the amount of time you need.”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: No entity has $100B or $500B upfront for Stargate
“Elon is 100% right. Nobody has five hundred billion dollars. In fact, nobody has a hundred billion dollars to contribute to this on day one.”
Insight
Gerstner: Stargate's 2025 Buildout Needs Only ~$3B in Equity
“Out of the thirteen billion dollars of capex required, you know, if you make an assumption about 25 75 or 30 70 equity to debt, that probably requires like a three billion dollar equity check.”
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: OpenAI Is Already Running Workloads Out of Abilene Facility
“Larry said at the press conference, They have 10 buildings already built in Abilene. They have another 10 under construction, and we know that OpenAI is already running workloads out of Abilene, Texas, which is where this mega project's going to be built, and …”
Opinion
Gurley: Stargate sounds like a better-funded version of CoreWeave
“It sounds to me like maybe a, an even better funded version of CoreWeave”
Assertion Supported
Haas: OpenAI will have operational control of the Stargate project
“And the operational control will be from OpenAI. So they'll, they'll call the shots relative to all the things relative to the operation.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner Forecasts 250k GPUs in 2025 and 1-2M in 2026 for Stargate
“And I'm forecasting maybe 250,000 GPUs this year, maybe a million or two million, you know, next year”