The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 200 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Altman: OpenAI has no IPO date or formal decision to go public
“No, no, no, we don't have anything that specific. I'm a realist. I assume it will happen someday, but that was I don't know why people write these reports. We don't have like a date in mind. We don't have a decision to do this or anything like that. I just ass…”
Altman: OpenAI will keep stateless APIs exclusive to Azure through 2030
“We are keeping what Satya termed once. And I think it's a great phrase of stateless APIs on Azure exclusively through 20, 30 and everything else we're gonna You know, distribute elsewhere.”
Nadella: Microsoft does not plan to sell its OpenAI stake
“You could also say, hey, the hundred and thirty five billion dollars that is, you know, today are equity stake, you know, is sort of illiquid, what have you. We don't plan to sell it, so therefore it's got risk associated with it.”
Gerstner: OpenAI has a $250B Azure compute commitment with Microsoft
“You have the profit you make off the two hundred and fifty billion dollar of the Azure compute commitment from OpenAI.”
Altman expects coding AI to execute multi-day tasks by 2026
“Codex has been a very cool thing to watch this year, and as these go from multi-hour tasks to multi-day tasks, which I expect to happen next year, what people be able to do to create Software at an unprecedented rate.”
Gerstner: California AG will not object to OpenAI restructuring
“The California attorney general said they're not going to object to it.”
Nadella: OpenAI has beaten every business plan presented to Microsoft
“And let me just say one thing Brad as both a partner and an investor, there is not been a single business plan that I've seen from open AI that they're put in and not beaten it.”
Gerstner: OpenAI revenue share sends billions annually to Microsoft
“So, you have the value in the rev share, billions per year going, going to Microsoft.”
Altman confirms OpenAI is developing new computing device form factors
“That's one reason I'm very excited that we're doing new form factors of computing devices, because computers were not built for that kind of workflow very well.”
Gerstner: OpenAI non-profit is capitalized with $130 billion in stock
“The nonprofit is already capitalized with a hundred and thirty billion dollars, a hundred and thirty billion dollars. Of open AI stock.”
Nadella: Running OpenAI workloads accelerates Microsoft's cost curve reduction
“When you have the biggest workload there is running on your cloud, that means not only are we going to learn faster on what it means to operate with scale, that means your cost structure is going to come down faster than anything else. And guess what? That'll …”
Huang: OpenAI and xAI will likely consume compute capacity internally
“I think they'll likely use it themselves and just in the case of X, they'll likely use it themselves.”
Huang: OCI, OpenAI, and SoftBank have contracted 5 to 7 gigawatts
“The second is the OCI build out. And I think there's some five, six, seven gigawatts about to be built out. And so working with OCI and OpenAI and SoftBank to build that out. Those projects are contracted.”
Wu: Los Alamos OpenAI supercomputer deployment is shared with Lawrence Livermore and Sandia
“The other cool thing is it's actually being shared between Los Alamos and some of the other labs Lawrence Livermore Sandia as well because it, it's the supercomputer setup where they can all kind of connect with it remotely.”
Wu: GPT-5 enables single-generation code completions in the Codex CLI
“The second thing, honestly, is, is GPT-V. Like, I just think GPT-V really allows the product to shine. It's, you know, at the end of the day, this is kind of a, this is a product that really is dependent on the model, underlying model. And when you have to, yo…”
Wu: GPT-5 Pro solves previously unsolved problems but takes ten minutes
“These like unsolved problems that none of the other models could handle, you throw out a GPT-V Pro, and it just like one shots it is pretty crazy, but the trade-off here is you're waiting for 10 minutes.”
Wu: Failed Enterprise AI Deployments Usually Lack Data Scaffolding
“My hunch is some of the enterprise deployments that don't actually work out likely don't have the scaffolding or infrastructure for these agents to interact with as well. A lot of the, like, really successful deployments that we've made, a lot of what our FDs …”
Wu: GPT-5 solves coding problems no other AI model can solve
“Especially for like coding use cases, especially at the, you know, at the, when it thinks for a while, it'll usually solve problems that no other models can solve.”
Godement: OpenAI PMs stopped writing PRDs to vibe-code prototypes instead
“We started, like, essentially not doing, like, PRDs, like, product requirements documents. You know, classic PM thing. You write, like, five pages, like, my product does that, et cetera. And, you know, PMs have been basically VibeCoding prototypes.”
Wu: OpenAI is currently operating in a GPU crunch
“We are in a GPU crunch, so we'll see how, you know, how long that goes.”
Gurley: AI startup capital and burn exceed Uber-DoorDash wars
“Look, there's just no denying that the amount of capital that is going into these companies earlier in their life and the scale of hiring and their willingness to take on risk, which I think you can use cash burn as just a proxy for risk because you get furthe…”
The AI model you use today is the worst you will ever use
“The model that you use today is the worst AI model that you'll ever use for the rest of your life”
OpenAI will enter and compete in new product categories, says Kevin Weil
“And that's an opportunity for us in places where we think we can play a role. We, where we think we have a perspective. We'll go compete.”
Frontier AI capabilities cannot be managed top-down, argues Kevin Weil
“In an AI world, you need to do that because the IMLs are so new. We don't, you don't top down know all of the capabilities. You see them kind of coming through the mist and we're better at finding all of the opportunities when we have a lot of smart people Thi…”
Gerstner: OpenAI Hit 1 Billion Daily Searches 8 Years Faster Than Google
“Open AI reached you know, four hundred billion annual searches, eight years faster than Google. Right? So they're doing over a billion searches a day now.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT commands an 80% to 90% consumer AI market share
“Clearly chat GPT is a major thrust, a major focus of the business. It's the market leading consumer application probably has 80 to 90% market share.”
Gerstner: Altimeter backed OpenAI at $260B pre-money valuation
“Altimeter participated along with several others who were reported, and the valuation was like 260 pre which would make it, if all the money were to come in, a 300 post valuation”
Gerstner: OpenAI's Upcoming AI Product Releases Will Be Profound
“I think the stuff that we're going to see over the course of the next eight to 10 weeks out of open AI, as they get these releases teed up, I think it's going to be pretty profound and, You know, continue to add you know, to add pressure to that lead.”
Gurley: DeepSeek is pricing API inference at one-twentieth of OpenAI
“If you look at the models that are apples to apples on the API right now, that, that DeepSeq's pricing about one-twentieth of OpenAI.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Is Already Running Workloads Out of Abilene Facility
“Larry said at the press conference, They have 10 buildings already built in Abilene. They have another 10 under construction, and we know that OpenAI is already running workloads out of Abilene, Texas, which is where this mega project's going to be built, and …”
Haas: OpenAI will have operational control of the Stargate project
“And the operational control will be from OpenAI. So they'll, they'll call the shots relative to all the things relative to the operation.”
Patel: Microsoft runs GPT models on AMD hardware for inference
“Microsoft has deployed GPT-style models on On other competitors' hardware, such as AMD they've, and some of their own, but mostly AMD, and so they can wring that out with software because they can spend hundreds of engineers, dozens of engineers' hours hundred…”
Patel: GPT-4 cost hundreds of millions to train, generates billions in revenue
“Hundreds of millions of dollars to train GPT-IV. And it's generating billions of dollars of revenue.”
Nadella: Microsoft Partnered With CoreWeave to Catch Up to ChatGPT Demand
“That, that we did because we all got caught with the hit called ChatGPT and OpenAI APIs, right? Yeah, we were completely, I mean, like, yeah, it was impossible. There's no supply chain planning I could have done in you know, what is it, you know, like none of …”
Nadella details the four pillars governing Microsoft's OpenAI partnership
“I think of them as, hey, as an investor, what are their interests and our interests, and how do we align them? I think of them as an IP partner and because we give them systems IP, they give us, ah, model IP, right? So that's another side of it where we are, a…”
Nadella: Microsoft tried for 10 years to secure an Apple search deal
“Like, I've been trying to get an Apple search deal for, like, 10 years. And so, when Tim finally did a deal with Sam, I was, like, the most thrilled person, which is better, it's better to have ChatGPT get that deal than anybody else, because we, you know, we …”
Nadella: OpenAI Briefly Used GCP Before Returning to Microsoft for Transformers
“The first time yeah, actually, Elon and Sam, they were looking for, obviously, Azure credits, and what have you, and we gave them some credits, and that time, they were more into RL, and Dota II, and what have you, and that was interesting and then we stopped …”
Gerstner: OpenAI could 2x or 3x ChatGPT users without core model improvements
“OpenAI could double, triple the number of users of ChatGPT with frankly, not making any improvements in the core model because consumers today barely scratched the surface on core model capabilities.”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers and OpenAI are solely focused on 1-3 gigawatt power sites
“When I talk to CoreWeave, when I talk to Azure, when I talk to OpenAI, when I talk to Amazon, Google, et cetera, not one of them Is talking about anything other than how do we find the facilities that can support a gigawatt or two gigawatts or three gigawatts …”
Gerstner: OpenAI achieved escape velocity with $4B revenue and $10.5B capital
“Don't forget this company, you know, is, has over four billion in revenue scaling. Probably most people think to ten billion plus in revenue. Over the course of the next year, they just raised six and a half billion. They got a four billion dollar line of cred…”
Gerstner: OpenAI has 250M weekly users, double Google at IPO
“They have two hundred and fifty million, yeah, two hundred and fifty million weekly average users, which we estimate is twice the amount Google had at the time of its IPO.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Has Generated $3 Billion in Real Customer Spend
“To the tune of, you know, three billion dollars, OpenAI has people reaching in their pockets and paying real money, including myself, for their service.”
Gerstner: Apple cannot outsource building its core AI assistant
“I think a decision to sell the generative AI search button you know, to open AI and the way that they're doing with Google search is a far cry from outsourcing, right? Their mission to build their own version of her, which I don't think that Apple can ever out…”
Gerstner: Google's Astra Demo Felt Pre-Recorded and Clunky vs. GPT-4o
“Google yesterday, you know, at their IO event showed off Astra, their version of Her, albeit a little Recorded and maybe a little bit more clunky.”
Gurley: Voice AI may be more interesting than OpenAI's Sora video generator
“And by the way, on that topic, I think voice AI may be more interesting than, say, Sora or the video stuff that OpenAI released. I think more and more people are realizing, because LLMs are language models, that people would love to just talk to them.”
Gurley: Microsoft is a clear net winner from generative AI
“People looked at the Microsoft portfolio of assets, especially where they make money around the office suite, right? And said, and the developer community where they also, you know, control a lot of the IDEs that are used to program. And they said, oh, this is…”