The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 63 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: OpenAI scaled users and revenue faster than any previous company
“We've never seen two companies in the case of open AI scale users and scale revenue as fast as they are”
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic Private Rounds Eclipse Recent Tech IPOs
“I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market, right?”
Gerstner: Reasoning models dwarf single-shot ChatGPT in compute consumption
“You have these O series models, and now you have deep reasoning out of Google that launch this whole different vector of scaling intelligence and reasoning. But the thing about those, Bill, as you well know, is they are compute hogs. Right? The number of token…”
Gerstner: OpenAI Reached $4.5B in Revenue Much Faster Than Google and Meta
“OpenAI got to, you know, four and a half billion dollars of revenue in a fraction of the time it took Google and Meta.”
Gerstner: ChatGPT Traffic Jumped to 2.6B Visits and 100M DAUs Post-GPT-4o
“Since it was released, web visits have gone from 1.8 billion to 2.6 billion visits per month. DAUs have gone from sixty million to a hundred million.”
Gurley: OpenAI Failed to Ship Voice Product Months After Promised Date
“The amazing voice demo that we saw on the last OpenAI demo day they had talked about releasing the voice product in two weeks and it's been months. Months, yeah. It's not out.”
Gerstner: GPT-4o Dramatically Lowers Inference Pricing Over Benchmark Gains
“And we plotted chat GPT for Omni on this chart, and you can see how it barely improved in terms of human level, the human eval score, but it dramatically improved in terms of pricing, you know, in terms of inference pricing.”
Madra: Llama 3 70B is over 10x cheaper than GPT-4
“Price performance, right? You get probably on, from a GPT-IV, you're more than 10 times cheaper. Right. And you're. Yeah. Yeah. 10 times cheaper. And well, let me just tell you, GPT-IV is 10 dollars per million tokens input and 30 dollars per million token out…”
Gerstner: Over 50% of OpenAI's revenue comes from consumers
“Over 50% of the revenue is, I think, from consumer.”
Gerstner: OpenAI announced directing first $25B of nonprofit to health and security
“You announced that you're going to direct the first twenty five billion to health and AI security and resilience, Sam.”
Nadella: Microsoft Azure was OpenAI's first sponsor in 2016
“We were involved even in 2016 when initially OpenAI started, in fact, Azure was even the first sponsor, I think. And then they were doing a lot more reinforcement learning at that time. I remember the Dota two competition, I think, happened on Azure, and then …”
Wu: Accordance achieved SOTA results on Tax Bench via OpenAI RFT
“There's another startup called Accordance that's doing this in the tax space. I think they've been targeting an eval called Tax Bench, which looks at, you know, CPA style tasks as well. And because they, because, you know, they're able to turn it into a very g…”
Wu: OpenAI's original product was its developer API, not ChatGPT
“When I joined OpenAI around three years ago to work on the API, it was actually the only product that we had.
[178] Sherwin Wu: So I think a lot of people actually forget this, where the original product for, from OpenAI actually was not ChatGPT.
[183] Sherwin…”