The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 200 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 5 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nadella: Microsoft refused OpenAI requests for dedicated multi-gigawatt compute clusters
“Sometimes you may have to say no to some of the demand, including some of the open AI demand, right? Because sometimes, you know, Sam may say, hey, build me a dedicated, you know, big, you know, whatever, multi-gigawatt data center in one location for training…”
Gurley: OpenAI Consumer Subscription Cohorts Suffer ~65% Annual Churn
“At least for the cohorts that are old enough, the churn's about 65% annually, so they're only 35% retaining, which Sachs had hinted at on All In, and maybe the reason that I think Sam at one point said he didn't really see the twenty-dollar thing as his future…”
Altman: OpenAI will eventually build low-power devices running GPT-6 locally
“Someday we will make an incredible consumer device that can run a GPT-Five or GPT-Six capable model completely locally at a low power draw.”
Nadella confirms Microsoft owns approximately 27% of OpenAI on diluted basis
“Yeah, it does. But I would say before even our stake in it, Brad, I think what's pretty unique about OpenAI is the fact that as part of OpenAI's process of restructuring, one of the largest nonprofit gets created.”
Altman predicts AI will make a novel scientific discovery by 2026
“I hope for very small scientific discoveries in 20, 26, but if we can get those very small ones, we'll get bigger ones in future years. That's a really crazy thing to say is that like AI is going to make a novel scientific discovery in 20, 26, even a very smal…”
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Altman: OpenAI will become a major AI cloud and consumer device business
“And that not only will Chachapiti keep growing, but we will be able to become one of the important AI clouds that our consumer device business will be a significant and important thing that AI that can automate science will create huge value.”
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Huang: OpenAI is likely the next multi-trillion dollar hyperscaler
“I think that OpenAI is likely going to be the next multi-trillion dollar hyperscale company. Hyperscale like, ah, like Meta's a hyperscale. Google's a hyperscale. They're going to have consumer and enterprise services, and, ah, they are very likely going to be…”
Philippe Laffont: ChatGPT subscribers reduce Google page views by 8% to 11%
“Absent chat GDP chat GPT, maybe Google page use for particular user growing four percent per year. So we are consuming more Google. Then we get a subscription to chat GDP, which we Chad, Jesus Christ, I confused GDP and GPT. We get a subscription and now we're…”
Gurley: OpenAI's Anti-DeepSeek Paper Signals Uncompetitive Rent-Seeking Behavior
“I think your friends at open AI added to that last week by putting out an anti deep seek paper that I thought was quite sad. Like if a company like GM or Ford were to put out a paper like that about BYD, we would look at them and go, oh, you just want the gove…”
Gurley: Credit Card Data Implies $2.1B of OpenAI Revenue Is Consumer
“I went into one of these credit card survey things, and I looked at OpenAI, and assuming that people don't pay for the API with a credit card, so the credit card pool just represents, and I compared it to a company where I knew the revenue it would imply that …”
Gurley: OpenAI and AI leaders are spouting vague, unsubstantiated hyperbole
“I think in this case, because some of the leaders and I'd say OpenA is probably the strongest Are willing to spout hyperbole. And what I mean by hyperbole is they're willing to just state really vague, broad, big ideas without much meat on them.”
Gerstner: Closed AI model startups besides OpenAI will struggle to raise funding
“I think it's going to be very difficult for new entrants to be venture backed because to, you know, open AI will continue to get funding because they have this incredible team. They have a hundred million people using the product and paying them for the produc…”
Gurley: Sam Altman's Energy Compute Framing Is Jobsian-Level Promotion
“I want to, there's two things Sam did this in this recent Interview that I think put him in the promotion hall of fame. And one of them was he juxtapositioned AI versus the smartphone market and then on the smartphone market is being small. He said, well, that…”
Gerstner: OpenAI Should Rename to ChatGPT and Focus on Google
“If I was Sam Altman running OpenAI, I think I might rename the company ChatGPT and just focused on the multi-trillion dollar opportunity to replace Google, right? Because I think winning at both, beating Google at consumer and beating Microsoft at enterprise y…”
Gurley: OpenAI would not exist if Google had patented the transformer
“So open AI doesn't exist today if that's patented and controlled. There's, it just doesn't”
Gurley: OpenAI used to be open-source and is now attacking it
“OpenAI that clearly is a closed model, and we have, we... And used to be open source. Right. And is now attacking open source.”
Baker: xAI's Google deal yields higher profit per GW than competitors
“He shows that XAI's deal with Google for cloud computing generates more operating profit per gigawatt than Anthropic, than Meta, than Google, than OpenAI.”
Baker: Grok 4.3 was the most intelligent 500B parameter model in the world
“Grok 4.3 was on the Pareto frontier, and as of 10 or 12 days ago, and these things move fast, most intelligent, five hundred billion parameter model in the world. And they were on the frontier, and there are four companies on the frontier. XAI, SpaceX AI, Goog…”
Gerstner: SpaceX, Anthropic, OpenAI will add $1T revenue in 4-5 years
“The forecast now that we're going to add another trillion of revenue in just three companies, SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI, over the next four to five years, ok? Like, not seven companies, three companies, and in half the time, right?”
Turley: General-purpose AI agents are about to reach critical usability
“And I do think we're about to get to that point with general purpose agents where it works well enough that you get at least partial credit, and because you're getting partial credit, you get really good tasks back, and then the magic begins because you know, …”
Turley: ChatGPT reasoning currently serves only power users but is transformative
“When you look at reasoning in ChatGPT today, it's irrelevant to a very small group of people. It's relevant for the people who are trying to get the most out of ChatGPT, but I fundamentally believe that reasoning, it's transformative”
Altman predicts OpenAI's nonprofit will become the largest nonprofit ever
“And also as Satya said, create what we believe will be the largest nonprofit ever.”
Nadella: Microsoft has royalty-free access to OpenAI IP for seven years
“Not only we have the exclusivity of the model in Azure, but we have access to the IP. I mean, having a royalty free, let's even forgetting all the know how and the knowledge side of it, but having royalty free access all the way till seven more years gives us …”
Nadella: Bill Gates was skeptical of Microsoft's initial $1B OpenAI investment
“Obviously you go to the board and say, hey, I have an idea of taking a billion dollars and giving it to this crazy structure, which we don't even kind of understand. What is it? It's a nonprofit, blah, blah, blah. And saying, go for it. There was a debate. Bil…”
Altman: 10x more compute would yield near 10x revenue for OpenAI
“If we had 10 X more compute, I don't know if we'd have 10 X more revenue, but I don't think it'd be that far.”
Altman: OpenAI would still rely on Microsoft distribution even with superintelligence
“Brad, to say the obvious, if we had super intelligence tomorrow, we would still want Microsoft's help getting this product out into people's hands and we want them like, yeah.”
Altman: OpenAI Does Not Know How to Comply with Colorado AI Act
“I don't know how we're supposed to comply with that California, sorry, Colorado law. I would love them to tell us you know, we'd like to be able to do it, but that's just, from what I've read of that, that's like I literally don't know what we're supposed to d…”
Nadella: State AI Regulatory Patchwork Disproportionately Harms Startups
“I mean, I think the fundamental problem of you know, this patchwork approach is quite frankly, I mean, between OpenAI and Microsoft, we'll figure out a way to navigate this, right? I mean we can figure this out. The problem is anyone starting a startup and try…”
Gerstner: OpenAI deals imply $150B in CapEx by 2030
“If you add them all up, it looks like to me, OpenAI would be on the hook for like a hundred and fifty billion of CapEx in 2030.”
Gerstner: OpenAI generating $150B in 2030 revenue is 'more than plausible'
“Is it plausible they could have a hundred and fifty billion dollars of revenue in 2030, and I would argue as an investor that it's more than plausible that they could have a hundred and fifty billion in revenue, but I think it makes it very, very difficult for…”
Huang: NVIDIA is partnering directly with OpenAI to self-build infrastructure
“This new partnership is about helping OpenAI, working, partnering with OpenAI to build their own self-build AI infrastructure for the first time. And so this is us working directly with OpenAI at the chip level, at the software level, at the systems level, at …”
Huang: Every country must develop sovereign AI capabilities
“And so I think that, that every country needs to have some sovereign capability. I recommend that they all use OpenAI, they all use Gemini, they all use, you know, these, Open models. You use Grok, and I think they, I recommend they all do that. I recommend th…”
Wu: OpenAI deployed o3 on an air-gapped Los Alamos supercomputer
“We actually did a custom on-prem deployment with them onto one of their supercomputers called Venado. And so this actually involves a bunch of, you know very bespoke work with some FDs also with a lot of our developer team. To actually bring one of our reasoni…”
Wu: GPT-5 hallucinations dropped to near zero on certain benchmark evaluations
“I think there was an eval that showed that hallucinations basically went to zero for a lot of this.”
Godement: Reinforcement fine-tuning will become the norm for pushing AI capability frontiers
“Pushing the frontier on, like, actual capabilities, my hunch is that RFT will pretty much become the norm. Like, you know, if you are actually pushing in your field, like, you know, intelligence, like, you know, to a pretty high point, like, at some point, lik…”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Madra: Alibaba's 30-billion parameter Qwen model matches GPT-4o performance
“There was a release today of a Quen You know, thirty billion parameter model, which is performing as good as GPT-IV-O.”
Gerstner: OpenAI should subsidize developer models using consumer profits
“Amazon had this monopoly retail business they could use to subsidize AWS, gain share for a decade, and then begin to take price. That would be a rational strategy for OpenAI to follow. So you take the profitable consumer business, you use it to subsidize, you …”
Gerstner: ChatGPT will likely cross 1 billion weekly active users in 2025
“I think ChatGPT will cross a billion weeklies, like maybe this year you know, probably this year, I would guess.”
Gurley: OpenAI's moat will be user lock-in, not frontier AI capabilities
“I would continue to believe that OpenAI's most likely chance to long-term success comes from switching cost and lock-in more than it will come from staying on the edge of the model race.”
Madra: Enterprise usage will shift back to US models if OpenAI open-sources
“With OpenAI's release and, you know, Meta charges back, or even if some of these startups emerge that, you know, we can point at, I think we'll see a huge shift back towards those models versus, versus the Chinese ones.”
Madra: US open-source AI will hit the global top three by 2026
“I think if we look at Q four this year or Q one next year, I'd be willing to say, you know, that a top three worldwide model will be a U S based open source model.”
Gerstner: Frontier AI model companies need tens of billions in annual revenue to survive
“Because if you're not bringing in 10, 20, 30, forty billion dollars of annual revenue, I don't think you can stay in this game.”
Gurley: OpenAI and Anthropic paid $10M annually before Meta's talent spree
“OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them ten million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it.”
The winning AI company will reach a $5T to $10T valuation
“At a hundred billion in revenue, it seems to me that this company could be on a path to being the most valuable company in the world, right? Five to 10 trillion dollar business in the fullness of time, which frankly would not surprise me for the winner in the …”