The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 56 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Madra: The three fastest AI inference companies are not NVIDIA
“The three fastest companies in inference right now are not Nvidia.”
Huang: The AI industry will with certainty require millions of GPUs
“If you just did that math and you compound it with, you add, you compound that with four X per year, On model size and computing size. And then on the other hand, demand continues to grow in usage. Do we think that we need millions of GPUs? No doubt. Yeah, tha…”
Huang: xAI Brought 100,000-GPU Cluster from Delivery to Training in 19 Days
“NVIDIA, NVIDIA's infrastructure and computing infrastructure and all that technology, to training, 19 days.”
Huang: xAI Brought a 100k GPU Cluster Online in 19 Days
“Just to put in perspective, a 100,000 GPUs, that's You know, easily the fastest supercomputer on the planet as one cluster. A supercomputer, ah, that you would build would take normally three years to plan. And then they deliver the equipment, and it takes one…”
Gurley: Nvidia Agreed to Buy CoreWeave's Unsold Compute Capacity
“One of the more peculiar of all the deals is, and this was disclosed in a CoreWeave filing, was NVIDIA has promised to buy any of CoreWeave's service availability that they can't sell to anyone else.”
Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027
“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”
Gerstner: Abu Dhabi Announced 5GW AI Campus with Nvidia, OpenAI, Oracle
“In Abu Dhabi, they announced a five gigawatt USAI, you know, it's a UAE USAI campus. It's an incredible architectural campus. It's in collaboration with NVIDIA and OpenAI and Oracle. And think of it as almost like a global Stargate. So to put that perspective,…”
Gerstner: The US banned Nvidia H20 chip exports to China
“What we did last week is the US did ban H-twenties going to China”
Gerstner: China No Longer Depends on Nvidia for AI Inference
“BYD is designing a better car, and CATL is designing a better battery, and their glow, their vertically integrated supply chain around semiconductors no longer is dependent upon NVIDIA for inference. Now they're running inference at DeepSeq on the Ascend nine …”
Gurley: DeepSeek bypassed Nvidia's CUDA framework for low-level optimization
“One, it's validated now that they went around CUDA, and I just think that's interesting.”
Gerstner: Nvidia will not lose AI market share from 2024 to 2025
“So I actually think if you look at the consensus numbers, they probably would imply that NVIDIA's market share is going down 24 to 25. And I don't think that to be true.”
Patel: Samsung holds almost zero share in HBM memory, especially at NVIDIA
“In HBM, Samsung has almost no share, right? Especially at NVIDIA”
Patel: NVIDIA is cutting Blackwell margins to compete with custom ASICs
“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”
Patel: Broadcom is building an NVSwitch competitor for AMD and others
“Broadcom is making a Competitors to that, that they will cede to the market, right? Multiple companies will be using that. Not just, you know, AMD will be using that competitor to NVSwitch, but they're not making it themselves because they don't have the skill…”
Gerstner: NVIDIA trades around 30 P/E compared to Cisco's 2000 peak
“Cisco, you know, 2000 and we'll show it on the pod, but you know, they peaked at like a 120 PE. Right. And yeah, you know, if you look at the fall off that occurred in revenue and in EBITDA, you know, and then it had 70% compression in the priced earnings mult…”
Gerstner: Next-Gen AI Frontier Models Will Arrive in Q2 2025
“All the rest of the frontier models are kind of in this holding pattern because they're waiting for the B 100 to get launched to this Q three, Q four out of Nvidia. Which probably means the next iteration of the frontier models will come out in Q two of next y…”
Gerstner: Over 40% of NVIDIA's revenue comes from AI inference workloads
“Over 40% of your revenue today is inference.”
Haas: The Base CPU for Stargate AI Data Centers Will Be ARM
“And every data center whether it's running general purpose compute, whether it's running inference or running training, needs a base CPU to run everything, end quote. And that's our role. And whether that is going to be what we are part of today, which is GB 2…”
Gerstner: Nvidia inference revenue is upwards of 50% of total revenue
“Jensen made, and maybe we'll insert the clip here on the pod, where he talks about his inference revenue is already 50% of his revenue, so already upwards of 50% of his revenue”
Gerstner: Jensen projected $1T in new AI and CPU replacement workloads
“And for the first time, he said, not only are we going to have a trillion dollars of new AI workloads over the course of the next four years he said, but we're also going to have a trillion dollars of CPU replacement, of data center replacement workloads over …”
Patel: Google TPU clusters scale up to 8,000 chips today
“Nvidia's talking about GB 200, NVL 72, TPUs go to 8000 today, right?”
Patel: AWS Trainium2 offers highest HBM capacity and bandwidth per dollar
“Their whole thing at reInvent, if you really talk to them when they announced Trinium II and our whole post about it and our analysis of it is, like, supply chain-wise, this is, looks, you know, you squint your eyes, this looks like an Amazon Basics TPU, right…”
Patel: Nvidia Blackwell costs over twice as much to manufacture as Hopper
“The cost to make Blackwell is north of two X that of the cost to make Hopper, right?”
Patel: Hyperscalers will significantly boost capex in 2025, lifting chip suppliers
“The plans for hyperscalers are pretty firm on, they're gonna spend a crap load more next year, right? And therefore, the ecosystem of networking players, of ASIC vendors, of systems vendors is gonna do well, whether it be NVIDIA or Marvell or Broadcom or AMD o…”
Patel: A quarter of Nvidia shipments could provide Llama-7B to humanity
“If you take one quarter of NVIDIA shipments and you said all of them are going to inference Lama-Seven-B, you can give every single person on earth a hundred tokens per minute, right? Or sorry, a hundred tokens per second. You give every single person on earth…”
Patel: Cisco was fueled by speculative debt whereas NVIDIA is cash-backed
“Cisco's revenue, a lot of it was funded through private-slash-credit investments into building out telecom infrastructure, right? When we look at NVIDIA's revenue sources, very little of it is private-slash-credit, right? And in some cases, yes, it's private-s…”
Gerstner: AMD guidance implies 3% GPU data center share vs Nvidia's 90%
“They gave some forward guidance tonight that suggests they're going to stay at about three percent of the GPU kind of data center market relative to NVIDIA at about 90%.”
Gerstner: 40% of NVIDIA's revenue already comes from inference
“40% of their revenues are already inference.”
Huang: NVIDIA Lowered Marginal Compute Costs by 100,000x Over 10 Years
“You know, a lot of this is happening because we drove the marginal cost of computing down by a 100,000 X over the course of 10 years.”
Gerstner: Nvidia's earnings multiple remained flat despite 10x stock surge
“In the case of Cisco, the earnings multiple more than tripled during that period of time. But in this case, because of the earnings growth of Nvidia, the earnings multiple has been flat despite the fact that the stock is up nearly 10 X.”
Gerstner: Llama 3 and GPT-5 Will Launch Between May and July
“The first H 100 only trained models, I think, will be Llama three and chat GPT five. So we're hearing rumors that both of those models are going to come out in the May, July timeframe.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta PEG ratios trade in line historically
“The big three, what I call Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Meta, You know, they too are trading at a premium, about a 14% premium, but if you look at their peg ratio, this is growth adjusted on the bottom of that slide, right? They're basically trading in line with whe…”
Huang: NVIDIA partnered with Intel despite historic rivalry
“And notice, we just did the ultimate deal. Right. Partnering with Intel. A company that spent most of its life trying to put us out of business. And I had no trouble partnering with them.”
Huang: NVIDIA does not force customers into bundled full-rack systems
“We don't require anybody to buy everything from us. We don't require that they buy the full rack. They could buy a chip. They could buy a component. They could buy our networking. They could buy our, we have customers buying only our CPU. You know, just buy ou…”
Huang: A One-Gigawatt AI Data Center Requires 400,000 to 500,000 GPUs
“When your customers deploy a gigawatt, that's a, you know, 400,500 thousand GPUs. Getting 500,000 GPUs to work together is a miracle.”
Gerstner: Uber, Nvidia, Oracle, Salesforce Commit to Invest America Matches
“Dell Corporation, for example, has raised their hand and said, you know, we intend to give to the kids of our employees. So has Uber. So has Nvidia. So has Oracle. So has Salesforce. So has T-Mobile. So has iHeartMedia.”
Gurley: Nvidia designed H20 specifically to comply with prior export rules
“And in fact, you designed this product specifically to meet The expert control rule that was in place before this one”
Gerstner: Nvidia has 3.6M Blackwell GPU orders from top 4 US CSPs
“The top four cloud providers in the United States and what the year over year order was, you know, hoppers, 1.3 million hopper GPUs to the top four CPUs or CSPs and comparing like time frame. He said, we've done, you know, 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs so far thi…”
Gerstner: Big Five Grew 2024 Earnings by 44% vs 2% for S&P 495
“And in 2024, the big five, so in this case, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google grew earnings at 44%... If you look at the other 495 companies in the S&P, their earnings only grew two percent.”
Gerstner: 2023 Wall Street consensus forecast for Nvidia missed by 80%
“In 20, 23, you had 26 analysts on Wall Street covering NVIDIA. And the consensus forecast of all 26 of them missed by 80%.”
Gerstner: Uber, Dell, Oracle, and Nvidia pledge Invest America contributions
“Companies have already raised their hands from Uber to Dell, Oracle to Nvidia, and said they would contribute to the accounts of the kids of their employees, parents,”
Gerstner: Nvidia stated half its revenue comes from inference
“We know Nvidia has said half of their revenue is inference”
Huang: Software updates make Hopper GPUs 2x to 4x better over time
“Now, we also put a lot of energy into continuously reinventing new algorithms so that when the time comes, the Hopper architecture is two, three, four times better than when they bought it, so that, that you, that infrastructure continues to be really effectiv…”
Gerstner: NVIDIA generates roughly $4M revenue and $2M FCF per employee
“Nvidia is in a league of its own, really you know, at about four million of revenue per employee, about two million of profits or free cash flow per employee.”
Gerstner: Nvidia EPS forecast expanded from $5.70 to $25 in one year
“The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be five dollars and 70 cents. And now it looks like it's going to be 25 dollars.”
Gerstner: Nvidia 2023 data center revenue beat initial consensus by over 4x
“At the start of last year, the consensus estimate of the smartest people covering Nvidia day to day was that the data center revenue was going to be twenty two billion for the year. Right. Guess what it ended up being? Ninety six billion.”