The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Wall Street consensus projects NVIDIA growth dropping to 8% in 2027
“But of the 25 sell-side analysts on Wall Street who cover your stock, if I look at the consensus estimate, it basically has your growth flatlining starting in twenty-twenty-seven. Eight percent growth twenty-twenty-seven through twenty-thirty, ok?”
Brad Gerstner Sep 26, 2025 ▶ 8:55 NVIDIA: OpenAI, Future of Compute, and the American Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Next-Gen AI Frontier Models Will Arrive in Q2 2025
“All the rest of the frontier models are kind of in this holding pattern because they're waiting for the B 100 to get launched to this Q three, Q four out of Nvidia. Which probably means the next iteration of the frontier models will come out in Q two of next y…”
Brad Gerstner Mar 7, 2024 ▶ 30:30 Ep4. Tesla FSD 12, Imitation AI Models, Open vs Closed AI Models, Delaware vs Elon, & Market Update · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: Nvidia inference revenue is upwards of 50% of total revenue
“Jensen made, and maybe we'll insert the clip here on the pod, where he talks about his inference revenue is already 50% of his revenue, so already upwards of 50% of his revenue”
Brad Gerstner Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 30:50 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Contradicted
Patel: A quarter of Nvidia shipments could provide Llama-7B to humanity
“If you take one quarter of NVIDIA shipments and you said all of them are going to inference Lama-Seven-B, you can give every single person on earth a hundred tokens per minute, right? Or sorry, a hundred tokens per second. You give every single person on earth…”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 59:42 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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