The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
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Huang: NVIDIA shares roadmaps years ahead with CSPs building ASICs
“When we work with all the GCPs Azure, we present our roadmap to them years in advance. They don't present their ASIC roadmap to us, and it doesn't ever offend us.”
Gerstner: Nvidia's 2025 stock hinges on shipping 6M versus 4.5M GPUs
“You know, we're kind of at, You know, six million GPUs for next year. The bearish people are at like four and a half million. Like the numbers will ultimately tell if they do six million next year, the stock's going higher. If they do four and a half million, …”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers stopped M&A to fund buybacks, dividends, and Nvidia chips
“We've been in this period in Silicon Valley for four years where companies just stopped, like, they may have sent their M&A teams to the beach for all I know. There just has not been a lot of activity, certainly among the hyperscalers relative to what had exis…”
Gerstner: Nvidia's earnings multiple remained flat despite 10x stock surge
“In the case of Cisco, the earnings multiple more than tripled during that period of time. But in this case, because of the earnings growth of Nvidia, the earnings multiple has been flat despite the fact that the stock is up nearly 10 X.”
Gerstner: Llama 3 and GPT-5 Will Launch Between May and July
“The first H 100 only trained models, I think, will be Llama three and chat GPT five. So we're hearing rumors that both of those models are going to come out in the May, July timeframe.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Nvidia, and Meta PEG ratios trade in line historically
“The big three, what I call Microsoft, NVIDIA, and Meta, You know, they too are trading at a premium, about a 14% premium, but if you look at their peg ratio, this is growth adjusted on the bottom of that slide, right? They're basically trading in line with whe…”
Huang: Nvidia's financial guidance assumes zero revenue from China
“Even though I tell all of our investors. That our guidance includes no China. And I appreciate all of our investors to include no China in any of our guidance.”
Huang: NVIDIA partnered with Intel despite historic rivalry
“And notice, we just did the ultimate deal. Right. Partnering with Intel. A company that spent most of its life trying to put us out of business. And I had no trouble partnering with them.”
Huang: NVIDIA is comfortable with low Wall Street consensus estimates
“Look, we're comfortable with that. Beating the numbers on a regular basis.”
Huang: NVIDIA does not force customers into bundled full-rack systems
“We don't require anybody to buy everything from us. We don't require that they buy the full rack. They could buy a chip. They could buy a component. They could buy our networking. They could buy our, we have customers buying only our CPU. You know, just buy ou…”
Huang: A One-Gigawatt AI Data Center Requires 400,000 to 500,000 GPUs
“When your customers deploy a gigawatt, that's a, you know, 400,500 thousand GPUs. Getting 500,000 GPUs to work together is a miracle.”
Dell: Custom ASICs gain share at hyperscalers, but customer count remains small
“I think for the larger model companies and hyperscalers certainly custom ASICs are gaining a lot of share. And when you have control over the workload and you can you know, take the time to optimize your workload you know, that's certainly going to be a part o…”
Gerstner: Uber, Nvidia, Oracle, Salesforce Commit to Invest America Matches
“Dell Corporation, for example, has raised their hand and said, you know, we intend to give to the kids of our employees. So has Uber. So has Nvidia. So has Oracle. So has Salesforce. So has T-Mobile. So has iHeartMedia.”
Gerstner: Nvidia H20 chip sales generate $2B to $3B in US tax revenue
“Fifteen billion in sales of H-twenties, right? That probably results in, you know, eight, nine billion dollars of earnings, you know, back to NVIDIA. You tax that at a corporate rate, that's two or three billion dollars to the U.S. Treasury.”
Gurley: Nvidia designed H20 specifically to comply with prior export rules
“And in fact, you designed this product specifically to meet The expert control rule that was in place before this one”
Gurley: Government action from DC is the number one risk to Nvidia stock
“I think the number one risk on the stock is government action from DC.”
Gerstner: Nvidia has 3.6M Blackwell GPU orders from top 4 US CSPs
“The top four cloud providers in the United States and what the year over year order was, you know, hoppers, 1.3 million hopper GPUs to the top four CPUs or CSPs and comparing like time frame. He said, we've done, you know, 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs so far thi…”
Gerstner: Big Five Grew 2024 Earnings by 44% vs 2% for S&P 495
“And in 2024, the big five, so in this case, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google grew earnings at 44%... If you look at the other 495 companies in the S&P, their earnings only grew two percent.”
Gerstner: 2023 Wall Street consensus forecast for Nvidia missed by 80%
“In 20, 23, you had 26 analysts on Wall Street covering NVIDIA. And the consensus forecast of all 26 of them missed by 80%.”
Gerstner: High-bandwidth memory will face shortages for foreseeable future
“And we think that we have a memory shortage, which is a key part of the NVIDIA supercomputer ecosystem for as far as we can see.”
Patel: NVIDIA ships chips from design to deployment faster than competitors
“They get chips out faster than other people from
Thought design to deployed.”
Patel: NVIDIA's primary differentiation comes from deep supply chain integration
“I would say for differentiating, NVIDIA has primarily focused on supply chain things, which, you know, might sound like, oh, well like, yeah, they're just like ordering stuff. No, no, no, no. You have to work deeply with the supply chain to build the next gene…”
Patel: Google built rack-scale AI systems with Broadcom in 2018 before NVIDIA
“Google actually did this alongside Broadcom you know, and they did it before Nvidia, right? You know, today everyone's freaking out about, or not freaking out, but like everyone's like very excited about Nvidia's Blackwell system, right? It is a rack Of GPUs. …”
Gerstner: Uber, Dell, Oracle, and Nvidia pledge Invest America contributions
“Companies have already raised their hands from Uber to Dell, Oracle to Nvidia, and said they would contribute to the accounts of the kids of their employees, parents,”
Gurley: Nvidia's competitive differentiation is greatest at largest cluster sizes
“One, the NVIDIA differentiation, as we've talked about, is greatest at the largest cluster size.”
Gerstner: Nvidia stated half its revenue comes from inference
“We know Nvidia has said half of their revenue is inference”
Gerstner: Arm is well positioned to challenge NVIDIA on edge AI compute
“The orthogonal competitor Peels off a lot of the AI on the edge, and I think ARM's incredibly well positioned to do that. Clearly, NVIDIA's got ARM embedded now in a lot of their you know, in a lot of their Grace Blackwell, etc. But that to me would be one are…”
Gurley: NVIDIA's competitive advantage is strongest at massive system scale
“NVIDIA's competitive advantage is strongest where the size of the system is largest, which is another way of saying what Renee said. It's flipping it on its head. It's not to say it's weak on the edge, but it's super powerful when you put a whole bunch of them…”
Gerstner: Altimeter and NVIDIA invested in OpenAI's $6.5B round
“Open AI. Raised, as you know, six and a half billion dollars this week at like a hundred and fifty billion dollar valuation. We both participated.”
Huang: Software updates make Hopper GPUs 2x to 4x better over time
“Now, we also put a lot of energy into continuously reinventing new algorithms so that when the time comes, the Hopper architecture is two, three, four times better than when they bought it, so that, that you, that infrastructure continues to be really effectiv…”
Huang: Models built on NVIDIA run on NVIDIA without modification
“If you built it on this architecture, Without any consideration, it will run on this architecture, ok? You could still go and optimize it for other architectures, but at the very minimum, since it's already been architect, you know, built on NVIDIA, it will ru…”
Gerstner: NVIDIA generates roughly $4M revenue and $2M FCF per employee
“Nvidia is in a league of its own, really you know, at about four million of revenue per employee, about two million of profits or free cash flow per employee.”
Gerstner: Nvidia EPS forecast expanded from $5.70 to $25 in one year
“The EPS at the beginning of last year, the earnings per share was expected to be five dollars and 70 cents. And now it looks like it's going to be 25 dollars.”
Gerstner: Nvidia 2023 data center revenue beat initial consensus by over 4x
“At the start of last year, the consensus estimate of the smartest people covering Nvidia day to day was that the data center revenue was going to be twenty two billion for the year. Right. Guess what it ended up being? Ninety six billion.”
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google invested $25B in VC in 2023
“We go from almost no venture capital investing, you know, out of these folks six or seven years ago to all of a sudden this twenty five billion dollars last year in VC investing”
Gerstner: Tech trades at 36% premium to 10-year average while software lags
“The blue line represents tech. This is the Q's. We're trading at about a 36% premium to the ten-year average. I just showed you software. Software is still trading at a discount because people are more skeptical of software, but when you look at the Q's, Nvidi…”
Gerstner: Altimeter Reduced Nvidia Position Size to De-Risk Fund
“It, it's a smaller position than it was the last couple years because all of our position sizes are smaller as I took down risk at the start of this year.”
Gerstner: NVIDIA's CUDA library has over 300 industry-specific acceleration algorithms
“The CUDA library now has over 300 industry specific acceleration algorithms, right? Where they deeply learn the industry, right? So whether this is synthetic biology or this is image generation, or this is autonomous driving, they learn the needs of that indus…”
Gurley: NVIDIA has 65% operating margins while growing over 100%
“You have a company at a 3.3 trillion market cap that's still growing over a hundred percent a year, and the margins are insane. I mean, 65% operating margins. There's only like five companies in the S&P 500 at that level, and they certainly aren't growing at t…”
Gerstner: Nvidia Consensus Data Center Revenue Is $136B in 2024, $166B in 2025
“So this year they're expected to do about a hundred and thirty six billion of data center revenues. Next year, that goes to a hundred and sixty six billion.”
Gerstner: Big Tech Earnings Are Up 38% Over the Past 12 Months
“So if you look at it for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Meta, earnings are up 38% over the last 12 months.”
Gerstner: Nvidia and Magnificent Six drove 10% of S&P's 14% return
“So far this year, NVIDIA is responsible for five percent of the S&P 500 returns. The other MAG six are responsible for five percent, and then the other 493 companies in the S&P 500 are responsible for four percent of the 14% year to date returns.”
Gerstner: Tech stock gains in early 2024 are concentrated in Meta and Nvidia
“Meta, Nvidia up 30, 40% even with the pullback that we had today. But the truth is the Nasdaq hasn't really moved that much. I mean, I think we're up three or four percent through today. If you look at the median stock, I think it's up about one percent.”
Gerstner: Google trades at the lowest P/E and growth rate among MANG peers
“This is the 23 through 25 expected growth rates. 14% for Microsoft, 12% for Amazon. 42% for NVIDIA and 11% for Google. So Google's already expected out of those four to be growing at the slowest rate. But then what's interesting, if you come down here, To the …”