The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 22 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gurley: Baidu Trades at Zero Enterprise Value Despite Apollo Robotaxi Asset
“While people are saying that, that the Waymos should be worth a hundred and seventy billion inside of Google, you can buy shares of Baidu for zero enterprise value. It's a thirty billion market cap, thirty billion in cash from the books.”
Gurley: OpenAI will lose $7B this year, a burn rate Google avoids
“OpenAI is going to lose seven billion this year, and Google won't.”
Gerstner: Public companies report Google organic clicks down 20-40% YTD
“We have public companies now reporting, that are reporting their Google organic clicks are down 20 to 40% year to date.”
Gerstner: Google and OpenAI will launch superior coding agents in 2025
“I think you're going to see some pretty dramatic breakthroughs this year on coding, right? So think about all the startups that we've seen in the coding space. A lot of them have used prompt injection and other techniques in order to You know, kind of get thes…”
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Thomas Laffont: AppLovin doubled revenue while cutting headcount over 35%
“At the same time as AI comes in, now the company's lean and mean, innovates, outcompetes companies like Google and Meta, doubles the size of the company as the employee count is down over 35%.”
Gerstner: OpenAI Hit 1 Billion Daily Searches 8 Years Faster Than Google
“Open AI reached you know, four hundred billion annual searches, eight years faster than Google. Right? So they're doing over a billion searches a day now.”
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Microsoft missed early deep learning opportunity with Geoffrey Hinton to Google
“In fact, even Hinton worked, like some of the early work in DNNs happened when he was in residency in MSR and then Google hired him. So we missed, I would say, even in the early 20 tens, some of what could have been doubling down at around the same time that G…”
Gerstner: OpenAI has 250M weekly users, double Google at IPO
“They have two hundred and fifty million, yeah, two hundred and fifty million weekly average users, which we estimate is twice the amount Google had at the time of its IPO.”
Madra: Google's monthly AI token volume exploded 200x to 1 quadrillion
“In the Mary Meeker bond deck, you know, they have a slide there that shows Google went from five trillion tokens a month to 480 trillion tokens a month, and they had just put some press out that they crossed, like, you know, 800 trillion, and I saw something t…”
Gurley: ChatGPT cannibalizes informational search, not high-monetizing commerce searches
“Informational searches are what, Check GPT cannibalize first, not the commerce searches, which is where most of the money is on the paid.”
Gerstner: Reasoning models dwarf single-shot ChatGPT in compute consumption
“You have these O series models, and now you have deep reasoning out of Google that launch this whole different vector of scaling intelligence and reasoning. But the thing about those, Bill, as you well know, is they are compute hogs. Right? The number of token…”
Gerstner: Big Five Grew 2024 Earnings by 44% vs 2% for S&P 495
“And in 2024, the big five, so in this case, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google grew earnings at 44%... If you look at the other 495 companies in the S&P, their earnings only grew two percent.”
Patel: Google has run transformers in Search workloads since 2018
“Google was running transformers even in their search workload since 2018, 2019. The advent of BERT, which was one of the most most well-known, most popular transformers before we got to the GPT madness is, has been their, in their production search workloads f…”
Gerstner: OpenAI Reached $4.5B in Revenue Much Faster Than Google and Meta
“OpenAI got to, you know, four and a half billion dollars of revenue in a fraction of the time it took Google and Meta.”
Gerstner: Cloud hyperscalers will beat consensus revenue forecasts due to AI
“You know, our belief is that they will. We think they will beat those forecasts because we do see that real acceleration coming out of AI.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google invested $25B in VC in 2023
“We go from almost no venture capital investing, you know, out of these folks six or seven years ago to all of a sudden this twenty five billion dollars last year in VC investing”
Gerstner: Earnings from Google, Meta, and Microsoft all report compute shortages
“Google, Meta, Microsoft, Satya, you had your earnings yesterday, you know, and we heard consistently not enough compute.”
Gerstner: Big Tech Earnings Are Up 38% Over the Past 12 Months
“So if you look at it for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Meta, earnings are up 38% over the last 12 months.”
Gerstner: Google trades at the lowest P/E and growth rate among MANG peers
“This is the 23 through 25 expected growth rates. 14% for Microsoft, 12% for Amazon. 42% for NVIDIA and 11% for Google. So Google's already expected out of those four to be growing at the slowest rate. But then what's interesting, if you come down here, To the …”