why aren't all 7 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Huang: Every country must develop sovereign AI capabilities
“And so I think that, that every country needs to have some sovereign capability. I recommend that they all use OpenAI, they all use Gemini, they all use, you know, these, Open models. You use Grok, and I think they, I recommend they all do that. I recommend th…”
Opinion
Gerstner: ChatGPT is pulling away; Gemini, Meta AI, and Claude are lagging
“ChatGPT beginning to run away with it. Gemini, Meta AI, Claude really are not even you know, keeping up.”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Generative AI apps show around 40% weekly engagement
“If you look at these generative AI apps, character tops out at about 64%, but if you look at Claude, Gemini, ChatGPT, they're about 40%. So much lower engagement you know, than you know, internet consumer apps.”
Opinion
Gerstner: ChatGPT engagement is radically more resilient than expected despite competition
“ChatGPT has been radically more resilient, and the engagement has increased much faster than I think any of us would have thought with that level of competition coming out.”
Opinion
Gurley: Gemini has an unmatched advantage in local search reviews
“Gemini is really good at local. Because they have all the local reviews. So I find myself now, if I'm going to a restaurant, you can say, what are the three dishes people have loved the most? What are the two that you stay away from?”