why aren't all 15 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Ghodsi: We already have AGI based on historical definitions
“I think we have AGI. I think we have artificial general intelligence. We really have it. We absolutely have it. It's like, Anyone who says we need to get to AGI, that's like, it's a, it's false premise to start with. We already have AGI.”
Insight
Ghodsi: Desktop AI automation stalls because frozen models lack continuous learning
“The biggest problem is that you bake a model, and that's where it's learned everything it needs to learn, and then you freeze it, and then you launch it, and then maybe you give it some context, but that's it. It's frozen. So therein lies the problem that, you…”
Opinion
Ghodsi: Enterprises do not need superintelligence to capture massive AI value
“We have the AGI we need. Let us just focus on solving the actual problems inside the organizations, and I think we can already, that's enough to automate a lot of the tasks and get huge economic value out of it. We don't actually need superintelligence for tha…”
Opinion
Ghodsi: Large language models have become interchangeable commodities
“Yeah, look, I think the LLM is a commodity. People are not saying that, but it is a commodity. Like, and, you know, when I took econ classes, commodity was when it's interchangeable. Like, you can get gas from this gas station, or you can get gas from that gas…”
Opinion
Gerstner: Elite Tech Companies Like SpaceX and Stripe May Stay Private
“You know, think of, you know, the SpaceX's, the ByteDance, the Databricks, the Stripes of the world, all the companies people are waiting to see when they're going to come public. They all fit that profile. They don't need the public markets to provide the liq…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Altimeter expects four portfolio IPOs, including Cerebras, CoreWeave, and Databricks
“I think we may have four IPOs in the pipeline in the next four to six months. The rumors out there around companies like Cerebris and CoreWeave and Databricks, those are all in our portfolios.”
Disclosure
Jain: Glean abandoned internal model fine-tuning for pre-built models
“Some of our fine tuning work, building, building models for a specific use case within our product, like, you know, didn't really pan out for us. And ultimately the choice was that, you know, we can go with already built models, whether they are small open sou…”
Assertion Supported
Ghodsi: Merck developed transformer model TEDDY for AI drug discovery
“In healthcare, we have you know, customer Merck that in the life science space created a model called TEDDY. TEDDY stands for Transformer Enabled. Drug discovery. And this is a transformer model, kind of just like large language models that can predict the nex…”
Insight
Ghodsi: Enterprise AI advantage lies in proprietary data and processes
“It really comes down to your company. What data does your company have that's special? That your competitors don't have. Can you leverage that? And can you build AI that really understands that data? Because that's not a commodity. There's not an AI out there …”
Assertion Supported
Ghodsi: RBC AI agents produce equity research reports in 15 minutes
“Royal Bank of Canada built agents with us that basically take, As soon as an earnings report comes out. So equity research analyst, their job is to put together these, you know, reports that say, like, you know, this is a buy, this is a, you know, hold, and so…”
Assertion Supported
Ghodsi: High-profile startups attempting to replace RPA with GenAI have failed
“There has been many startups that have failed in the generative AI. We're going to replace RPA with generative AI models. There's many startups that failed actually that I know of, like pretty some high profile ones.”
Assertion Supported
Huang: Data processing at Snowflake and Databricks runs mostly on CPUs
“Data processing represents the vast majority of the world's CPUs today. It still completely runs on CPUs. You know, if you go to Databricks, it's mostly CPUs. If you go to Snowflakes, mostly CPUs. SQL processing at Oracle, mostly CPUs. Everybody's using CPUs t…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2028
Ghodsi: Databricks has 6,000 GTM staff and 3,000-4,000 R&D employees
“Databricks is a big, you know, 6000 person go to market org and three, 4000 person R&D org, and then there's some back office stuff.”
Disclosure
Gerstner: Altimeter Recently Sold Tabular to Databricks for $1B to $2B
“We've recently sold two companies in our portfolio. One was reported by the Wall Street Journal for a billion to two billion dollars to Databricks called Tabular.”
Assertion Partly supported
Gerstner: UiPath growth slowed to 6% and Salesforce to 7%
“UiPath came out and said their growth slowed down to six percent. Salesforce came out and said their growth slowed down to seven percent. And I think for a company like Snowflake, it came in at 26% and Databricks is rumored to still be growing well in excess o…”