why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Opinion
Gerstner: AWS Trainium Chip Cannot Compete With Nvidia's Hopper or Blackwell
“I think Tranium is not even competitive with Hopper, let alone with where Blackwell is today.”
Assertion Partly supported
Patel: NVIDIA is cutting Blackwell margins to compete with custom ASICs
“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”
Assertion Not checkable as stated
Huang: NVIDIA could not design Hopper, Blackwell, or Rubin chips without AI agents
“Our cyber security system today can't run without Without our own agents. We have agents helping to design chips. Hopper wouldn't be possible. Blackwell wouldn't be possible. Ruben don't even think about it.”
Assertion Supported
Patel: Nvidia Blackwell costs over twice as much to manufacture as Hopper
“The cost to make Blackwell is north of two X that of the cost to make Hopper, right?”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Nvidia has 3.6M Blackwell GPU orders from top 4 US CSPs
“The top four cloud providers in the United States and what the year over year order was, you know, hoppers, 1.3 million hopper GPUs to the top four CPUs or CSPs and comparing like time frame. He said, we've done, you know, 3.6 million Blackwell GPUs so far thi…”
Assertion Open · timeframe Dec 2024
Patel: Google built rack-scale AI systems with Broadcom in 2018 before NVIDIA
“Google actually did this alongside Broadcom you know, and they did it before Nvidia, right? You know, today everyone's freaking out about, or not freaking out, but like everyone's like very excited about Nvidia's Blackwell system, right? It is a rack Of GPUs. …”