The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 17 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Nadella: Microsoft refused OpenAI requests for dedicated multi-gigawatt compute clusters
“Sometimes you may have to say no to some of the demand, including some of the open AI demand, right? Because sometimes, you know, Sam may say, hey, build me a dedicated, you know, big, you know, whatever, multi-gigawatt data center in one location for training…”
Nadella: Microsoft's $13.5B OpenAI investment was equity, not booked as Azure revenue
“Our investment of let's say that 13 and a half, which was all the training investment, that was not booked as revenue. That is the reason why we have the equity percentage. That's the reason why we have the 27% or a hundred and thirty-five billion. So that was…”
Gurley: Microsoft's OpenAI deal uses cloud credits to create cashless revenue
“It started with the original, from my perspective, with the original Microsoft open AI deal where credits go in as A in kind investment. And then those credits are used back against, you know, Azure and Microsoft cloud services. And in the, in that case, you k…”
Nadella: Microsoft has royalty-free access to OpenAI IP for seven years
“Not only we have the exclusivity of the model in Azure, but we have access to the IP. I mean, having a royalty free, let's even forgetting all the know how and the knowledge side of it, but having royalty free access all the way till seven more years gives us …”
Nadella: Copilot Suite Is Microsoft's True High-Margin Business Over Azure
“Some of times our investors are overly fixated on the Azure number. But remember, for me, the high margin business for me is co-pilot. It is security co-pilot. It's GitHub co-pilot. It's the healthcare co-pilot. So we want to make sure we have a balanced way t…”
Nadella: At massive scale, nothing in cloud infrastructure is a commodity
“Everything is a commodity, right? Compute, storage. I remember everybody saying, wow, how can there be a margin? Except at scale, nothing is a commodity.”
Huang: Hyperscalers support NVIDIA's direct purchasing deals with AI labs
“But they would like to have the same direct relationship with us, direct working relationship, and direct purchasing relationship. Meta, just as what Zuck and Meta has with us it's exactly a direct. Our relationship with between us and Sundar and Google, direc…”
Gerstner: OpenAI has caused almost no share shift from AWS to Azure
“We've seen almost no share shift from AWS to Azure as a result of OpenAI.”
Nadella: Microsoft manages compute capex as a single unified outlay
“My capital allocation is for the cloud from whether it is Xbox cloud gaming or Microsoft three, six, five, or for, Azure. It's one capital outlay. And then everything is a meter, as far as I'm concerned, from an MSFT perspective. It's a question of, hey, the b…”
Gerstner: OpenAI has a $250B Azure compute commitment with Microsoft
“You have the profit you make off the two hundred and fifty billion dollar of the Azure compute commitment from OpenAI.”
Nadella: Azure Growth Would Have Hit 41-42% With More Compute
“Absolutely. Absolutely. There's no question. There's no question.”
Nadella: Running OpenAI workloads accelerates Microsoft's cost curve reduction
“When you have the biggest workload there is running on your cloud, that means not only are we going to learn faster on what it means to operate with scale, that means your cost structure is going to come down faster than anything else. And guess what? That'll …”
Nadella: Microsoft allocates capital to unified cloud infrastructure rather than product silos
“To me, I've never, I don't allocate my capital thinking here is the Azure capital. Here is the M. Three, six, five capital. Here is you know, gaming. I kind of think of, hey, there's a cloud infra. That's the core theory of the firm for me. On top of it, I hav…”
Gerstner: Hyperscalers and OpenAI are solely focused on 1-3 gigawatt power sites
“When I talk to CoreWeave, when I talk to Azure, when I talk to OpenAI, when I talk to Amazon, Google, et cetera, not one of them Is talking about anything other than how do we find the facilities that can support a gigawatt or two gigawatts or three gigawatts …”
Nadella: Microsoft Is Supply Constrained Rather Than Demand Constrained
“We're not demand constrained, we're supply constrained. So we are shaping the demand such that it matches the supply in the optimal way with a long-term view.”
Nadella: Microsoft Azure was OpenAI's first sponsor in 2016
“We were involved even in 2016 when initially OpenAI started, in fact, Azure was even the first sponsor, I think. And then they were doing a lot more reinforcement learning at that time. I remember the Dota two competition, I think, happened on Azure, and then …”