why aren't all 5 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Assertion Supported
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Prediction Partly held up
Gerstner: Apple will partner with OpenAI, limiting features to newer iPhones
“I think they're going to have a series of announcements, you know, in terms of integrating with OpenAI. They're going to make the phone better. They're going to say, you can only get it on 15 plus or 16. They'll drive a replacement cycle into, you know, that b…”
Prediction Didn’t hold up
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Meta completely recovered from Apple privacy changes using AI
“Basically, because of AI, they've been able to backfill that monetization completely. Nobody thought, no investors thought that was going to be the case 18 months ago. So their core business got a lot stronger.”
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”