The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 24 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gurley: Tesla or Apple could plausibly get kicked out of China
“Both Tesla and Apple have a huge amount of revenue in China, and when you sense that this thing may be escalating or that there are ripple effects going back and forth, what one plausible thing that could happen is either one of them get kicked out of the coun…”
Gurley: The next 3-6 months will dictate AI leadership for 5-10 years
“Cause I think it's a really critical window. I'm talking about like next three to six months could dictate who's standing on top of the hill five, 10 years from now.”
Gerstner: Apple has opted out of building frontier AI models
“Apple has self-selected out of the race, right? They're not building a big model.”
Gurley: Google possesses a consumer AI asset stack Apple and Microsoft lack
“And, you know, you look at a company like Glean that I know you you're in and is doing well, you know, you can create Glean for the rest of us. If a company commits to being on the Google stack and has all these things and it becomes a combination that no one …”
Patel: Apple accounts for over 70% of Google's TPU rental revenue
“There's only one company accounts for over 70% of Google's revenue from TPUs as far as I understand, and that's Apple.”
Patel: Broadcom holds custom ASIC wins with Meta, OpenAI, and Apple
“Broadcom does have multiple custom ASIC wins, right? It's not just Google here. Meta's, Meta's ramping up mostly still for recommendation systems, but their custom chips are gonna get better. You know, there's other players like OpenAI who are making a chip, r…”
Nadella: Apple and Google will block AI over-the-top computer use
“At the end of the day, the user will be in control on an open platform like Windows. And I'm sure Apple and, you know, Google will have a lot more control, so they won't allow it.”
Nadella: OpenAI's partnership with Apple is accretive to Microsoft shareholders
“Ultimately, these things will have some overlap, but I also, in that context, the fact that they have the Apple deal is, in some sense, for the MSFT shareholder, you know, accretive, right?”
Gurley: Ability to Impose One-Sided Deal Terms Should Be Monopoly Test
“I've often said that I, that the federal government should Have a new test for a monopoly, and I, and this is very self-centered bias to someone who's been a venture capitalist working with small companies for a long time, but for over the course of the years,…”
Gurley: 100% Bing Revenue Share Would Earn Apple Less Than Google Deal
“So the reality is that Google's monetization is so much better than anyone else that's out there that I don't think there's a deal you can do with Bing that will create that amount of net income for Apple. So there's no, like, Apple's not mad about this deal. …”
Gerstner: Apple will partner with OpenAI, limiting features to newer iPhones
“I think they're going to have a series of announcements, you know, in terms of integrating with OpenAI. They're going to make the phone better. They're going to say, you can only get it on 15 plus or 16. They'll drive a replacement cycle into, you know, that b…”
Gerstner: $20 Monthly Fees for Consumer AI Are Not Defensible
“Listen, I don't think a 20 dollar a month fee for my consumer AI is going to be defensible. And the reason I don't think that's defensible is because they're going to be way too many people in the pool. Apple's going to have one. Google's going to have one. Me…”
Gerstner: Apple has a near-zero probability of outsourcing its AI to Gemini
“I put the probability of them, quote unquote, outsourcing AI to Gemini at next to zero.”
Gerstner: On-device AI models will unlock a huge Apple upgrade cycle
“To me, the big breakthrough on Apple is if they can run a five, ten billion dollar parameter model on the phone, on the edge, without consuming all of my battery, which, you know, there's a lot of talk that they're going to be able to do that. They can maintai…”
Gerstner: Meta completely recovered from Apple privacy changes using AI
“Basically, because of AI, they've been able to backfill that monetization completely. Nobody thought, no investors thought that was going to be the case 18 months ago. So their core business got a lot stronger.”
Gerstner: Apple will use small on-device models and delegate complex queries
“Think about what Apple's going to do maybe more like a small language model. Like, really understand all the language, really understand everything about me, really understand how I interact with all these applications, and then when I have a deep problem I ne…”
Patel: Apple rents Google's TPU silicon, but GCP AI rentals remain GPUs
“While they do have some customers for their internal silicon externally, such as Apple the vast majority of their external rental business for AI in terms of cloud business is still GPUs.”
Nadella: Microsoft tried for 10 years to secure an Apple search deal
“Like, I've been trying to get an Apple search deal for, like, 10 years. And so, when Tim finally did a deal with Sam, I was, like, the most thrilled person, which is better, it's better to have ChatGPT get that deal than anybody else, because we, you know, we …”
Gerstner: Apple cannot outsource building its core AI assistant
“I think a decision to sell the generative AI search button you know, to open AI and the way that they're doing with Google search is a far cry from outsourcing, right? Their mission to build their own version of her, which I don't think that Apple can ever out…”
Gurley: Apple and Google will block AI apps overlaying mobile OSs
“Or some of them might try and sit on top of your phone. Of course, Google and Apple will stop them from doing that.”
Gerstner: Apple is not investing in frontier AI models
“Because they're not, you know, Apple is not investing in frontier models.”
Nadella: Licensing Outlook sync to Apple leaked value but protected Exchange
“We licensed the sync, ah, for Outlook, ah, to Apple, ah, for Apple Mail, ah, it was kind of a, it was an interesting case, and I think that there was a lot of value leaked, perhaps, But at the same time, I think that was one of the reasons why we were able to …”