The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Contradicted
Gurley: Anthropic and Eric Schmidt Pushed to Restrict Open-Source AI
“Anthropic and their investors like Eric Schmidt have been some of the people that have been encouraging, you know, more and more AI oversight and AI regulation and trying to make it such that open source AI would not be legal.”
Bill Gurley Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 28:49 BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: ICONIQ will lead a $5B round in Anthropic at $170B valuation
“I think that Iconic is going to lead a five billion dollar round into Anthropic at a hundred and seventy billion.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 31, 2025 ▶ 29:49 China Open-Source, Compute Arms Race, Reordering Global Trade | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: OpenAI and Anthropic paid $10M annually before Meta's talent spree
“OpenAI, Anthropic, they were all paying people tons of money before Meta did this. They were paying them ten million a year, you know, maybe smaller than what you were talking about, but they were doing it.”
Bill Gurley Jul 10, 2025 ▶ 38:22 Michael Dell – Invest America Act Becomes Law, AI Talent Wars, Compute Demand, Market Update | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: Reddit Sued Anthropic Despite Having an Existing Deal
“Reddit just sued Anthropic this morning despite having a deal”
Bill Gurley Jun 6, 2025 ▶ 5:30 China, AI Immigration, Rare Earths & Chips, Tariffs, Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gurley: OpenAI Reaches ~$2B, Anthropic ~$100M, and Perplexity ~$25M from Subscriptions
“Playing around with credit card data, I think OpenAI is about two billion Anthropics about a hundred million in perplexities at like twenty-five million.”
Bill Gurley Jul 25, 2024 ▶ 41:25 Ep13. Silicon Valley’s Political 180, META AI, COVID Postmortem | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Laffont: Anthropic grew from $1B to $3B in revenue within five months
“We've seen Anthropic, we have data in here that I think it took him about a year to get to their first billion in revenue. It took him three months to get to the next billion, and then it took him two months to get to the one The next billion after that, right…”
Thomas Laffont Jun 20, 2025 ▶ 41:39 Coatue’s Laffont Brothers. AI, Public & VC Mkts, Macro, US Debt, Crypto, IPO's, & more | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Patel: Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000-chip Trainium supercomputer
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 tranium server supercomputer, right? 400,000 chips, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:16:50 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Held up
Patel: Google and Anthropic will both release reasoning models soon
“There's a Google model that is doing reasoning right now, and it's not released yet, but it's gonna be released soon enough, right? Anthropic is going to release a reasoning model.”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 52:27 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: OpenAI and Anthropic Private Rounds Eclipse Recent Tech IPOs
“I think these are bigger private IPOs than any public IPO done in the last five years in the tech market, right?”
Brad Gerstner Aug 28, 2025 ▶ 1:30 China, China, China. Breaking Down China’s Tech Surge | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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