The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 6 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Brad Gerstner Oct 14, 2025 ▶ 43:19 AI Bubble, Stablecoin Boom, and Runnin' Down a Dream | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley and Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Patel: Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000-chip Trainium supercomputer
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 tranium server supercomputer, right? 400,000 chips, right?”
Dylan Patel Dec 23, 2024 ▶ 1:16:50 AI Semiconductor Landscape feat. Dylan Patel | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Held up
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 56:02 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google invested $25B in VC in 2023
“We go from almost no venture capital investing, you know, out of these folks six or seven years ago to all of a sudden this twenty five billion dollars last year in VC investing”
Brad Gerstner Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 4:09 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Big Tech Earnings Are Up 38% Over the Past 12 Months
“So if you look at it for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Meta, earnings are up 38% over the last 12 months.”
Brad Gerstner Jul 11, 2024 ▶ 12:16 Ep12. Tech Stocks vs the Rest; AI VC Bubble, Calcium CT Scan | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Supported
Gerstner: Google trades at the lowest P/E and growth rate among MANG peers
“This is the 23 through 25 expected growth rates. 14% for Microsoft, 12% for Amazon. 42% for NVIDIA and 11% for Google. So Google's already expected out of those four to be growing at the slowest rate. But then what's interesting, if you come down here, To the …”
Brad Gerstner Feb 22, 2024 ▶ 33:23 BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | NVDA, Chips, AI Compute Build Out, AI Impact on Big Tech | E03 · Bg2 Pod
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