The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 11 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Gerstner: Hyperscalers like Amazon and Meta will re-enter the stablecoin business
“You're going to see the hyperscalers. You're going to see Amazon and Meta and these guys back involved in the stable business.”
Patel: NVIDIA is cutting Blackwell margins to compete with custom ASICs
“Like with Blackwell, not only is it way, way, way faster, anywhere from 10 to 15 times on really large models for inference, because they've optimized it for very large language models, they've also decided, hey, we're gonna cut our margin, too, somewhat, beca…”
Gerstner: Amazon Spent Over $100 Billion on AWS Before Turning Profitable
“By our analysis, for example, just Amazon, Spent over a hundred billion dollars on AWS invested for over eight years before they saw profitability in that business.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, and Snowflake will accelerate growth rates in 2024
“We expect our forecast is that Microsoft and Amazon, you know, Snowflake, they'll all accelerate their growth rates this year, right?”
Patel: Amazon and Anthropic are building a 400,000-chip Trainium supercomputer
“Amazon and Anthropic have decided to, you know, make a 400,000 tranium server supercomputer, right? 400,000 chips, right?”
Patel: AWS Trainium2 offers highest HBM capacity and bandwidth per dollar
“Their whole thing at reInvent, if you really talk to them when they announced Trinium II and our whole post about it and our analysis of it is, like, supply chain-wise, this is, looks, you know, you squint your eyes, this looks like an Amazon Basics TPU, right…”
Gerstner: Big Five Grew 2024 Earnings by 44% vs 2% for S&P 495
“And in 2024, the big five, so in this case, Microsoft, Meta, Nvidia, Amazon, and Google grew earnings at 44%... If you look at the other 495 companies in the S&P, their earnings only grew two percent.”
Gerstner: Amazon will deploy custom silicon but remain major Nvidia buyer
“I think the answer to that is yes, but I still think they'll be one of the largest buyers of NVIDIA GPUs in the world because it doesn't replace that for a lot of really important workloads.”
Gerstner: Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Google invested $25B in VC in 2023
“We go from almost no venture capital investing, you know, out of these folks six or seven years ago to all of a sudden this twenty five billion dollars last year in VC investing”
Gerstner: Big Tech Earnings Are Up 38% Over the Past 12 Months
“So if you look at it for Microsoft, NVIDIA, Amazon, Google, Meta, earnings are up 38% over the last 12 months.”
Gerstner: Google trades at the lowest P/E and growth rate among MANG peers
“This is the 23 through 25 expected growth rates. 14% for Microsoft, 12% for Amazon. 42% for NVIDIA and 11% for Google. So Google's already expected out of those four to be growing at the slowest rate. But then what's interesting, if you come down here, To the …”