The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Open · timeframe Jan 2029
Musk: AI will perform any cognitive task within three to four years
“I mean, AI really within the next few years will be able to do any cognitive task. Like, it obviously begs the question, what are we all gonna do? You know, I'd say max three or four years. Maximum.”
Elon Musk Jan 11, 2025 ▶ 21:22 Market Predictions, Rates & Inflation, DOGE, CES, AI Compute | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Open · timeframe Dec 2030
Ghodsi: Speech interfaces will completely eliminate physical keyboards
“Like I think keyboards are kind of basically going to disappear. Completely. We haven't actually nailed speech. I know it feels like we have, but we haven't, because you're still using your keyboard. So as long as you're using a keyboard, we haven't nailed spe…”
Ali Ghodsi Dec 23, 2025 ▶ 40:04 AI Enterprise - Databricks & Glean | BG2 Guest Interview · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Open · timeframe Mar 2028
Gerstner: DOGE will downsize federal government by 40% to 50%
“The message is very clear that I think there's going to be a downsizing of the federal government to the tune of, let's call it, 40 or 50%.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 2, 2025 ▶ 52:16 Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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