The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 109 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 3 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Gurley: Cloud Revenue From Invested AI Credits Is 'Low Quality'
“From the big company player side, I would just say definitively, And this could get me in trouble, but this is low quality revenue. Like, this is flat out low quality revenue, and I'm certain that they've got their auditor to sign off on it, but I don't think …”
Bill Gurley Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 8:40 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Insight
Gerstner: Foundation Model Startups Cannot Compete Without Big Tech Backing
“If you're a founder and you want to compete in this, you know, in the model game, you know, and you don't have their backing, there is no, no chance.”
Brad Gerstner Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 20:26 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Partly supported
Gurley: Major LLM players are lobbying regulators to disable open source
“Some of the larger LLM players have literally attacked open source directly and are telling, you know, regulators to try and disable it.”
Bill Gurley Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 20:53 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Opinion
Gurley: OpenAI used to be open-source and is now attacking it
“OpenAI that clearly is a closed model, and we have, we... And used to be open source. Right. And is now attacking open source.”
Bill Gurley Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 22:43 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Opinion
Gerstner: Twitter Platform and Product Pace Are as Vibrant as Ever
“What he did at Twitter, laying off 75% of the people that, you know, I saw somebody tweet the other day, Bill they said, I guess Twitter isn't going to fall over. Right? I mean, the platform is as vibrant and the product development cycle is vibrant as it's ev…”
Brad Gerstner Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 54:11 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
What-if
Gurley: OpenAI would not exist if Google had patented the transformer
“So open AI doesn't exist today if that's patented and controlled. There's, it just doesn't”
Bill Gurley Jan 25, 2024 ▶ 1:00:28 BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner | MANG VC Gone Wild, Can You Trust AI Valuations? & More | E01 · Bg2 Pod
Opinion
It is too early to obstruct American AI with regulations, argues Gerstner
“I think we definitely are in the camp that it is way too early to obstruct American AI with, you know, useless regulations. Like, we don't even know what we should be regulating.”
Brad Gerstner Jun 21, 2025 ▶ 15:21 Coatue Pt2. Open AI’s Kevin Weil Dives into All Things ChatGPT | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: US Pressure Could Provoke ASML to Defy China Export Bans
“I could easily see us provoking Europe to the point where the ASML team just says, well, screw it. We don't care what you say. We're selling to China.”
Bill Gurley Mar 21, 2025 ▶ 1:02:52 NVDA GTC, M&A Wiz / Goog $32 B Deal, April 2 Tariff Uncertainty; Huawei Belt & Road; ChatGPT | BG2 · Bg2 Pod
Assertion Contradicted
Gerstner: X is the top news platform in every country worldwide
“X to me is so interesting because they have a platform that is the number one news platform in every country on the planet.”
Brad Gerstner Mar 2, 2025 ▶ 19:42 Grok 3, AI Memory & Voice, China, DOGE, Public Market Pull Back | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gurley: Tariffs on BYD will make Detroit automakers less competitive
“Detroit is not globally competitive anymore, and putting tariffs on BYD's cars is not going to make Detroit more competitive. It's going to make them less competitive, and they're going to fall further behind.”
Bill Gurley Feb 5, 2025 ▶ 32:02 DeepSeek, Open Source, Tariffs, DOGE, Market Impact | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Gerstner: Newsom's anti-business policies will cost Democrats future elections
“The stuff that Newsom's doing is just the same, same stuff that shrunk the party and cost Democrats future elections.”
Brad Gerstner Nov 27, 2024 ▶ 18:27 BG2 Thanksgiving Roundtable: DOGE, EV Tax Credit, Tariffs, Conspiracy Theories, Invest America · Bg2 Pod
Opinion
Gurley: Milei May Have Had Fastest Impact of Any Country's President
“If what he said is true about what's been accomplished, it may be the fastest impact a president of a country has ever had on, on, on the trajectory of that company country.”
Bill Gurley Nov 21, 2024 ▶ 54:12 Ep20. AI Scaling Laws, DOGE, FSD 13, Trump Markets | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
Opinion
Gerstner: ISS coerces corporate boards toward societal rather than corporate interests
“Many of us have argued over the years that ISS veered off course, right? And this started becoming kind of this cudgel to, you know, to coerce board behavior into ways that they deemed, right in maybe societal best interest or in their perceived best interest …”
Brad Gerstner Jun 22, 2024 ▶ 47:29 Ep11. Coatue Conference Recap, Tesla & ISS Controversy | BG2 with Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod
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