Gurley: Macro forecasting is unreliable because complex systems have hidden shifting variables
Bill Gurley · Tariffs, Free Trade, Export Controls, H20 & Rare Earth Ban | BG2 w/ Bill Gurley & Brad Gerstner · Bg2 Pod · Apr 24, 2025 · at 4:32
Bill Gurley discusses complex systems research at the Santa Fe Institute with Brad Gerstner, explaining why he avoids making macroeconomic predictions.
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“First, it's very hard to know which variables are dependent in a complex multi-variable system, and there may be one you don't know about that it flips, and the whole system takes on a different shape, and this makes these things very hard to predict, which is why I don't like talking about macro for that exact very reason, that there's so many variables that should Very hard to be accurate and correct, and even if you are, it might just be by happenstance, because you might not know the exact variable that caused it.”
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