The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 13 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: China will match US per capita GDP within decades
“China is going to have the same GDP per capita as America, more or less, at some point in the next couple of decades.”
Benedict Evans: US consumers will likely never return to $150/month TV spend
“It seems very unlikely that you're going to get everybody in America to go back to paying 150 dollars a month for television.”
Evans: Zoom is a feature, not a $200B enterprise platform
“It's just a feature. It's not an enterprise software platform. It's not going to be like the next, you know, a hundred billion dollar, two hundred billion dollar company.”
Evans: The US will not pass an equivalent to the DMA
“The US isn't going to get an equivalent of the DMA.”
Evans: Linear TV ad slots will disappear within 10 years
“Half of the ad, global ad industry is still on TV. And that's not going to be there in 10 years' time, or it won't be quote unquote TV. I mean, this is this whole, what is TV? You know, is Disney, you know, if you watch it on your smartphone, if you watch YouT…”
Evans: Legacy carmakers will be able to buy autonomy from Google
“It's much easier to say that the screen on a Tesla is an enormous challenge, or even that the autonomy is an enormous challenge, but then they'll be able to buy the autonomy from Google.”
Goldberg: Chip shrinking remains possible for roughly another 10 years
“There's still, you know, a good, I don't know, 10 years of shrinking possible.”
Goldberg: Most Chinese fabless chip companies will not survive
“It's going to shrink. Most of those companies won't survive, but enough will that there's something interesting going on there.”
Evans: Mass consumer blockchain adoption is 5 to 10 years away
“And, you know, if one looks at, you know web three, it's sort of realistic to say, you know, what point are we going to see hundreds of millions of people using a consumer, mass market consumer app that's built on a blockchain? Well, not next year. And sort of…”
Evans: Billions using smart glasses as primary computing is a decade away
“And the same thing for quote-unquote metaverse, which is, you know, what point do we think we might have billions of people wearing something that looked like a pair of glasses as their main or only computing experience? And is that, that, and that's a sort of…”
Evans: Retail gasoline sales will end by 2030
“Step forward, 10 years time, and there won't be any gasoline and a lot, it'll be a lot of delivery, but, you know, for the time being, that's a good number.”