The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 584 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 13 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Brody: Blockchain will eventually let sports fans vote on transfer decisions
“I think there will come a day where fans will be heavily engaged. In what goes on on the field. Like, and whatever that looks like, whether it's they're making game day decisions, or whether they're making transfer market decisions, or they're voting on those …”
Evans: Generative AI is going to demolish the porn industry
“It's also going to happen to porn. It's just going to demolish the porn industry. Because again, there's vast amounts of training data.”
Evans: Policy papers cannot control AI because models are open source
“And indeed the whole problem I had with the whole concept of AI safety and AI ethics was like, this stuff is all fundamentally open source. So aren't five companies that can do this. Anybody will be able to do this. So you're not going to be able to sit and wr…”
Evans: FTC Chair Lina Khan falsely claimed Amazon sold below cost
“Basically she claimed Amazon was losing money, which was This wasn't true. Or she claimed Amazon was selling below cost, which wasn't true.”
Evans: Vast majority of platform moderation decisions are universally agreed upon
“The vast majority of the decisions are not the lab leak theory from China or Hunter Biden's laptop. They're not things where people disagree. They are, you know, things where literally everybody who thinks content moderation is bad would look at that and go, o…”
Evans: VR will only succeed as a niche gaming subset
“I'm afraid I am now deeply on the sort of, okay, I don't think VR is going to work except as, I mean, the school of thought that says I don't think VR is working except as a subset of games. Now clearly there's a bunch of people who think that's just because t…”
Evans: China will match US per capita GDP within decades
“China is going to have the same GDP per capita as America, more or less, at some point in the next couple of decades.”
Evans: AI will not fundamentally alter enterprise software adoption dynamics
“This will be more software, and people will use this to make tools the way they did with no code, and the way they did with Excel, and the way they did with all those previous things, but it doesn't actually fundamentally change the dynamic. It just shifts tho…”
Evans: AI Model Inference Alone Generates 40% to 50% Gross Margins
“And meanwhile, we sort of know that you have positive gross margins on inference alone of sort of 40, 50%, but you've got the cost of building the next model, and you don't know where the cost The cost will move, or the cost of the next model will move, and yo…”
Evans: DeepSeek Proves Anyone With Two Billion Can Build Foundation Models
“Like anyone who's got a couple of billion dollars can make a foundation model which is what DeepSeq showed us as well.”
Evans: AI foundation models become commodities if frontier progress slows
“If the frontier slows down, then this stuff is definitely a commodity.”
Evans: Model makers will lose pricing power within five years
“And the paradox is like right now they can name their price, but that isn't where we're going to be in five years. You can argue about how quickly the infrastructure gets built out and how fast the GPUs arrive, blah, blah, blah, blah. Fine. But that's a supply…”
Evans: AI foundation models will likely become commodity infrastructure
“Are the model companies going to have come some kind of, you know, oligopolistic power over the tech industry, or is this going to be commodity infrastructure with,
The value being somewhere else to which I think the answer is it's commodity infrastructure, bu…”
Evans: External customers will spend $100B–$150B on AI coding this year
“This year, people outside of those labs will spend, clearly will spend something in the order of hundred, hundred and fifty billion dollars to use AI coding. Just to use AI coding. And that's not AI people spending money from NVIDIA. That's real money. And tha…”
Evans: Only idiots believe people will use vibe coding to rebuild Stripe
“Like, no, people are not going to vibe code to their own stripe, but that's kind of a straw man. Like it's, I'd say it's a straw man, except there are people who say this, but only idiots.”
Evans: AI model infrastructure likely settles into 3 to 6 company oligopoly
“So it seems quite likely that all of that will settle out at some point with some kind of oligopoly, where like the laws of gravity and the laws of financial gravity kick in, and while this is the amount of money that the revenue that you can get, and this is …”
Evans: User data does not currently make AI models better
“At the moment, they don't. At the moment, the companies all say, well, indeed, we don't train, we don't use your data to make the models better, partly because the amount of user data involved isn't enough to make the, relative to the broader scale of the trai…”
Evans: OpenAI will struggle to make data centers better than rivals
“In the end, A, it's going to be very hard for particularly OpenAI to, for their data center to be better than everybody else's or cheaper or more efficient than anybody else's.”
Evans: Tech companies will spend over $400B on AI infrastructure
“These companies will collectively spend something over four hundred billion dollars building infrastructure.”
Evans: Sora, AI app platforms, and AI browsers will likely fail
“The Sora, the app platform, the browser, it's quite more than likely that none of those will work.”
Evans: No competing AI app has more than 5% of ChatGPT's usage
“Go look at App Store ranking, or Google Trends, or usage data of any kind that you can get, and you see that basically it's ChatGPT, and then none of the others are more than five percent of that.”
Evans: AI assistant usage remains tiny compared to Google search
“Use of all of these AI assistants is still tiny compared to Google. And there is this sort of bubble talk in the valley that, oh my god, no one uses Google anymore, which is just not true unless you're in the valley.”
Google paid $25 billion last year in device revenue share
“Google is paying a revenue share of 25 to 35% of the revenue they get from each search back to the device, and that was twenty-five billion dollars last year.”
The US court cannot compel Apple to add Safari choice screens
“The court can't make Apple put a choice screen in Safari. Like, Apple isn't in court. Like, they haven't been convicted of anything.”
Apple is more likely to replace ChatGPT than build a search engine
“It's much more likely, I think, that Apple will shift questions from ChatGPT to its own foundation model than it would shift questions from Google to its own general search engine, I think.”
Apple will maintain Google defaults while routing specialized queries to AI
“Apple will carry on treating Google as the default general search engine. They'll just peel more stuff out into their own foundation model or into chat TPT or into booking.com.”
Evans: High inference costs prevent free 100-million-user consumer AI apps
“Because at the moment you can't make a consumer app that's free and have a hundred million users because you can't afford the inference cost.”
Evans: OpenAI will face half a dozen competitors
“I'm not sure, you know, there would be a big debate about whether OpenAI is worth anything right now, or what it's worth based on the fact that there's clearly going to be half a dozen competitors to it.”
Evans: Ad agencies replace 10-person two-week workflows using ChatGPT and Midjourney
“ChatGPT plus mid-journey means two people in a day instead of a team of 10 people in two weeks.”
Evans: Google Gemini generated racially diverse depictions of Nazi stormtroopers
“And so it turned out that if you typed in, give me pictures of Nazi stormtroopers, you got A white person in Nazi uniform, and a black person, and a Chinese person, and an Asian woman, and so on.”
Benedict Evans: US consumers will likely never return to $150/month TV spend
“It seems very unlikely that you're going to get everybody in America to go back to paying 150 dollars a month for television.”
Evans: Breaking up Google Display will not return ad spend to newspapers
“If you made Google display a separate business, all the people buying ads on Google display are not going to shift Those adds to newspapers, and that's not going to become like a bigger business.”
Devins: The future of computing is not bigger or more screens
“I don't think the future of computing is having five screens. And the reason that most people don't have five screens isn't because they're expensive and they don't have room. I don't want to work on a spreadsheet that has and see 200 rows and columns at once.…”
Devins: Bull case for Apple Vision headsets is 200 million users
“The thesis I'm groping towards is this is something that a couple of hundred, the bull case is a couple of hundred million people will have one of these eventually.”
Devins: Spatial computing headsets will reach mass market in five years
“You're seeing something that if this happens, this is something that will be mass market in some form in five years.”
Evans: AI wrappers will evolve into specialized vertical software
“What will happen over time is that this will, that those will become part of much richer, much more vertical, much more specialized pieces of software.”
Evans: AI startup value will accrue in the intermediate application layer
“And the company creation is going to be in the middle, which is how do you create actual like tools with lots of stuff on top of this?”
Evans: Twitter's erratic changes are Threads' biggest long-term growth driver
“Like the general point here is you cannot build a business there because you can't trust that they won't do something stupid or shut it down tomorrow. And that's probably the biggest long-term positive for threats. Is Elon is going to keep doing this. He's goi…”
Benedict Evans: Meta has spent up to $20,000 per active Quest user
“Yes, I was doing some back of the envelope math earlier, and like, if Meta, you know, like, depending on quite how much they've spent, quite many active users, Meta would spend somewhere between 10 and 20,000 dollars for each active user that they have on this…”
Benedict Evans: VR cannot become general computing without text-capable high-resolution screens
“You need the screen that Apple has shipped to do text at all. And you have, and you could propose that you can't do anything other than games, maybe fitness, maybe VR, maybe, maybe, maybe TV, maybe a couple of other niche things. Without text. And so VR is not…”
Evans: Apple will sell 200,000 Vision Pro units in 2024
“I'm not the right analyst to ask, but you know, they're not going to sell fifty million of them next year. They might, you know, they might sell a couple, they're going to sell a couple of 100,000.”
Evans: Rebuilding ChatGPT from scratch takes 6–12 months and tens of millions
“How long would it take you to make a chat GPT again yourself from zero? And it's like six months to a year and however many tens or hundreds of millions of dollars. So, you know, it's not quite, you know, anyone can do that at home, but it's like, it's also no…”
Evans: Amazon Ads Yield Operating Profit Equal to AWS Without Massive Capex
“So if you apply that to 40, forty billion dollars, you get whatever it is, 20, over twenty billion dollars which is roughly the same as AWS, so roughly equivalent operating profit as AWS, And without AWS's 10 or twenty billion dollars of capex attached to it.”
Evans: Product search moved almost entirely from Google to Amazon
“What's happened in the last decade or so is product search has moved almost entirely from Google to Amazon.”
Evans: Radically new AI UX will reset default consumer search habits
“Presume that the chat GPT will be 10% worse than Google. I mean, maybe not, maybe it'll be 10% better, but the point is consumers will not care anymore. They will, the experience will be so different that you'll kind of reset people's presumptions and people's…”
Evans: Custom video effects and actor swaps will run on iPhone apps
“Now, what, now, I, well, what is the point in which I say, okay, I would actually like to see that, but I would like to see Don Rickles instead of Go Forever. That, that is not 20 people in a production studio and a whole pile of SFX. That is going to be an iP…”
Goldberg: Cost per transistor is increasing in many cases
“The cost per transistor is actually going up in a lot of cases”
Goldberg: TSMC's Arizona fab will lag leading-edge chips by half a generation
“And now I think that's actually gonna be a real plant in Arizona. And I think it's gonna have decent capacity enough to sort of satisfy the U.S. Military's needs and Apple's needs. And it will be, I don't think it'll be even a generation behind. I think it'll …”