The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

3statements match

3resolved → 0open claims → 2supported → 0contradicted →

why aren't all 3 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Partly held up

Goldberg: TSMC's Arizona fab will lag leading-edge chips by half a generation

“And now I think that's actually gonna be a real plant in Arizona. And I think it's gonna have decent capacity enough to sort of satisfy the U.S. Military's needs and Apple's needs. And it will be, I don't think it'll be even a generation behind. I think it'll …”

Jay Goldberg Dec 19, 2022 ▶ 25:11 Why are chips interesting again?

Assertion Supported

Evans: TSMC manufactures roughly 75% of current-generation semiconductor chips

“TSMC Really in the last five years moved from being one of many players in chips to dominating cutting into chip. So, you know, current generation chips are, I forget the number, three quarters TSMC.”

Benedict Evans Mar 7, 2022 ▶ 10:02 Ukraine

Assertion Supported

Evans: TSMC makes 5nm chips while Intel is stuck above 10nm

“TSMC is now making this chip at five nanometers, so that's how small the components are, when Intel is stuck at over 10 nanometers.”

Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 2:26 The paradox of Apple

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