why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public
record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable
ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't;
assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card:
▮▮▮▮▮ certainty ·
▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Prediction Not checkable as stated
Evans: Twitter's erratic changes are Threads' biggest long-term growth driver
“Like the general point here is you cannot build a business there because you can't trust that they won't do something stupid or shut it down tomorrow. And that's probably the biggest long-term positive for threats. Is Elon is going to keep doing this. He's goi…”
Insight
News on social platforms creates aggravation without driving revenue or usage
“Speaking from a business perspective, news is a lot more trouble than it's worth. It's not actually particularly good for business because it's a huge amount of aggravation and toxicity and anger and problem. And it doesn't actually drive a lot of, it certainl…”
Insight
Trending topics and search are the primary drivers of toxic dogpiling
“Trending topics and search are the two ways things that tend to drive dog piles. And tend to drive everyone rushing to scream at somebody.”
Insight
Threads gains an advantage as ideological extremes self-select out
“All people who think that Elon Musk is brilliant, and if you point out that any particular problem or mention him in anything but less than sycophantic terms, they're all going to stay, they're not going to go to Threads. All the Nazis are going to go, I'll st…”
Opinion
Evans: Meta is not designing Threads for Twitter power users
“And the same thing here, Meta is not building for people who've got 35 alphabetized lists. Meta is not building for people who use RayX to do searches on Twitter. Meta is not building for people who follow 20,000 people and use TweetDeck. It's not building for…”
Insight
Visual Instagram social graphs do not map well to text-based platforms
“And so whether it's that or whether you were following all of your friends, that doesn't necessarily matter very well. To the kind of text that you might want to see, because it, you know, when you follow people in a text-based format, you might want to get pe…”
Assertion Supported
Evans gets more likes on Threads with 12K followers than Twitter
“And, but the point is like, I've got like almost 400,000 followers. And I think I've got like 10 or 12,000 followers on, on threads. I get more likes on threads than I do.”
Assertion Supported
Evans: Threads reached 150 million signups within two weeks
“And it's got a hundred and fifty million signups. And quote unquote, tens of millions of daily users.”