The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 9 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 1 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Opinion
Evans: Tesla's energy business is worthless in software vs. cars debate
“The pair of that, of course, is Tesla, where, you know, half the questions are car industry questions, and half of them are software questions, and indeed, you know, the argument about Tesla is The Tesla stock is the bulls think it's a software company and the…”
Benedict Evans Nov 8, 2021 ▶ 6:09 How to think about tech
Opinion
Evans: Tesla is dangerous because it claims it drives itself when it cannot
“That intermediate, weird intermediate thing is the reason a lot of people think Tesla is dangerous, because Tesla tells you it can drive itself and it can't.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 37:40 Apple's metronome
Opinion
Evans: Tesla Risks Becoming a Subscale Legacy Automaker Like Saab
“You know, there is basically the bull argument on Tesla is it's a software company and the bear argument on, on Tesla is it's a car company. If it's a car company. Then it's basically a subscale car company and it's going to end up like sub. Great cars, but su…”
Benedict Evans Aug 15, 2021 ▶ 39:37 Telcos and Tesla
Prediction Held up
Evans: Fully autonomous, driverless cars will not arrive by 2022
“Full, full, full autonomy as in a car with no steering wheel that can drive from San Francisco to San Diego while you sleep in the back and there's no seats, there's just a sofa and no windows, you know, like that kind of autonomy is five, 10, 15, 20, I don't …”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 35:31 Apple's metronome
Prediction Open · timeframe Aug 2026
Evans: Legacy carmakers will be able to buy autonomy from Google
“It's much easier to say that the screen on a Tesla is an enormous challenge, or even that the autonomy is an enormous challenge, but then they'll be able to buy the autonomy from Google.”
Benedict Evans Aug 15, 2021 ▶ 26:51 Telcos and Tesla
Insight
Evans: If Tesla is a car company it is screwed; if software, everyone else is
“Tesla, this is the argument. Is it a software company or a car company? If it's a car company, it's screwed. If it's a software company, everyone else is screwed.”
Benedict Evans Jan 31, 2021 ▶ 16:56 Telling stories with charts
Opinion
Evans: Apple faces no conceptual barriers to building a better Tesla
“That's just money and time and engineering, but there's no conceptual reason why they couldn't make a better Tesla.”
Benedict Evans Sep 20, 2021 ▶ 29:38 Apple's metronome
Assertion Supported
Evans: Tesla lacks competing models for any Fiat or Honda vehicles
“And Tesla is, has a BMW three series competitor and it has a BMW five series competitor and it has a BMW X two competitor. It doesn't have anything competitive to anything that Fiat makes. At all. Doesn't have a competitor, anything that Honda makes at all.”
Benedict Evans Aug 15, 2021 ▶ 34:48 Telcos and Tesla
Assertion Contradicted
Evans: Tesla market cap roughly equals top 40 auto companies combined
“Tesla's market cap is roughly equivalent to The market cap of like the top 40 companies in the auto business.”
Benedict Evans Jan 31, 2021 ▶ 12:50 Telling stories with charts
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