The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 4 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Prediction Didn’t hold up
Evans: External customers will spend $100B–$150B on AI coding this year
“This year, people outside of those labs will spend, clearly will spend something in the order of hundred, hundred and fifty billion dollars to use AI coding. Just to use AI coding. And that's not AI people spending money from NVIDIA. That's real money. And tha…”
Benedict Evans Jun 5, 2026 ▶ 14:57 The spring updates on AI
Insight
Evans: All AI questions have no answer or follow past platform shifts
“All AI questions have one of two answers. The answer is either no one knows, like how much better will the models get, for example you know, what happens to, you know, does inference cost collapse and we no longer need any more in video chips? No one knows. An…”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2025 ▶ 15:57 The AI presentation
Assertion Partly supported
Evans: Nvidia Sold $15B in GPUs Last Quarter, Up From $2B-$3B
“NVIDIA sold whatever the number is fifteen billion dollars of GPUs last quarter up from, you know, two or three the same quarter last year.”
Benedict Evans Dec 17, 2023 ▶ 5:10 AI and Everything Else
Assertion Supported
Goldberg: Nvidia is writing off tons of GPU inventory
“Today, there's too many GPUs, NVIDIA's writing off tons of inventory.”
Jay Goldberg Dec 19, 2022 ▶ 15:26 Why are chips interesting again?
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