The Ledger

Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.

clear all ✕

why aren't all 8 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable

Assertion Supported
Evans: Meta spends billions inventing tech, unlike Apple's original off-the-shelf iPhone
“Meta is spending tens of billions of dollars every year on all of that Moore's law, because where Apple could basically sit on top of an awful lot of technology that already existed, like they didn't need to create ARM from scratch. They didn't need to invent …”
Benedict Evans Apr 16, 2023 ▶ 13:05 Metaverse and crypto - beyond the BS
Assertion Supported
Evans: Google pays Apple nearly $20B for default iPhone search
“Google pays, Apple pays, Apple probably close to twenty billion dollars to be the default search engine on the iPhone.”
Benedict Evans Feb 12, 2023 ▶ 25:35 ChatGPT versus Google
Prediction Held up
Evans: Winning VR/AR platforms will be open ecosystems like iPhone
“The ones that will win will be ones that are open platforms in the way that the iPhone was an open platform. And I do mean deliberately to say the iPhone is an open platform. It has millions of apps and billions of downloads. It's an open platform. That's what…”
Benedict Evans May 16, 2022 ▶ 11:59 Metaverse - how to be wrong in the right way
Assertion Supported
Evans: More people download software on iPhone now than all pre-2005 platforms combined
“There are more people downloading software on an iPhone now than happened on every computing platform on earth before 2005.”
Benedict Evans Nov 15, 2021 ▶ 14:46 What we know about web 3 so far
Assertion Supported
Evans: Most component value in iPhones comes from outside China
“The iPhone is made in Shenzhen, but actually, the vast majority of the value inside it doesn't come from China.”
Benedict Evans Jan 17, 2021 ▶ 24:21 Two Europeans talk about China
Assertion Supported
No company besides Apple has sold 250 million $600 machined steel devices
“Nobody has ever sold two hundred and fifty million things at 600 dollars each, machined out of stainless steel before.”
Benedict Evans Oct 19, 2020 ▶ 26:51 What the Apple and Facebook events tell us about their product cycles
Assertion Supported
Evans: iOS attack surface dwarfs Mac with one billion active devices
“There's, say, a hundred million Macs out there, and most people don't really install software on their Macs. They've got the software it came with, they installed Zoom, and maybe Office, or maybe Photoshop, and that's kind of it... Nobody is installing five ap…”
Benedict Evans Jun 14, 2021 ▶ 23:15 Paying attention to Apple again
Assertion Supported
Evans: One billion people currently own an iPhone
“And the result is that today a billion people have an iPhone.”
Benedict Evans Nov 16, 2020 ▶ 5:40 The paradox of Apple
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