The Ledger
Every statement that passed quotation and attribution checks. Mix any filter with any other: certainty 1/5, debate potential 5/5, or both at once.
why aren't all 10 resolved? a statement only gets an assessment when the public record can support or contradict it. opinions and what-ifs never can, and 0 checkable ones are still open, waiting for their date. predictions held up or didn't; assertions are supported or contradicted. on every card: ▮▮▮▮▮ certainty · ▮▮▮▮▮ debate potential. speakers are clickable
Evans: Blocking Apple's PA Semi deal would have preserved Intel-Qualcomm duopoly
“Apple is making basically better chips than Intel or Qualcomm today, and it's doing that based on the acquisition of PA Semi, which was now a decade ago, also ago, 15 years ago, and what would, if the FTC had blocked that, Then basically they'd have gifted the…”
Evans: Apple Silicon will blow through Intel on performance
“And now they are on a curve to just blow through Intel and deliver dramatically better performance which is kind of, again, classic disruption theory.”
Evans: ARM architecture has overtaken Intel's x86 architecture
“Arm began a sort of low power chip architecture for very small devices and PDAs and so on, but it's grown to the point that it's now overtaken the x-ay six architecture that Intel are using.”
Benedict Evans: Apple's laptop-grade silicon gives Vision Pro an architectural advantage
“Apple is using a high-end laptop SAC in this thing because they have their own, which has massively better performance per watt than anything from Intel. Guess what Meta has to use? They have to use a smartphone chip from Volcom.”
Goldberg: Designing custom chips yields no direct cost savings versus buying
“And if you actually do the math and sort of figure out cost, cost of designing your own chip versus buying from someone else, it turns out that there is no cost savings directly. You only want to design a chip that conveys some form of strategic advantage, rig…”
Goldberg: Intel fell off the Moore's Law curve around 2012–2014
“And Intel dropped the ball. And we could spend a whole hour talking about Intel and their problems, but yeah, they are, they were once the definition of Moore's law. I mean, it's named after Gordon Moore. He used to be CEO of Intel. He was the founder. And the…”
Evans: Leading-edge chip fab capex will climb from $20B to $40B
“Which is why Intel had this, you know, this capital project to build new chip capability in the US, and it was twenty billion dollars. And that's just this generation. And there's going to be 40, it's going to be forty billion dollars next year. And the number…”
Paradigm Shifts Disrupt Incumbents by Doing Something Entirely Different
“Each of those generations tended to change what companies mattered. So IBM dominates mainframes, and in fact, at the time, people used to talk about IBM and the Seven Dwarfs, because there were seven much smaller companies, like kind of Honeywell and Control D…”